Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lanlana Tararudee v Emerson Jones

Kickoff: 2026-08-11 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

63%

37%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lanlana Tararudee (Local)

Prediction 63.03%1.59fair odd

EV -4.20%

Edge -2.76%

Kelly -8.08%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.15%63.11%63.09%64.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.471.501.501.5268.03%66.87%66.67%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Emerson Jones (Visit)

Prediction 36.97%2.70fair odd

EV +0.940%

Edge +0.344%

Kelly +0.543%

Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.61%36.89%36.91%37.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.432.562.502.7341.15%39.12%40.00%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lanlana Tararudee (Local): 63.03%; Emerson Jones (Visit): 36.97%. For Emerson Jones (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.70. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.73, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.940%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 64.39%EV -4.83%E -3.20%K -9.47%G +0.000%	2.73I 36.63%NM 35.61%EV +0.940%E +0.344%K +0.543%G +0.005%	2.9%	2026-08-11 15:04
LowVig.ag🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 64.39%EV -4.83%E -3.20%K -9.47%G +0.000%	2.73I 36.63%NM 35.61%EV +0.940%E +0.344%K +0.543%G +0.005%	2.9%	2026-08-11 15:05
Pinnacle🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.37%EV -4.20%E -2.76%K -8.08%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.63%EV -2.76%E -1.05%K -1.69%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-08-11 15:50
Betway🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.46%E -3.64%K -10.92%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.87%E -1.49%K -2.42%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-11 15:05
PlayUp🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.20%E -2.76%K -8.08%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -7.56%E -3.03%K -5.04%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-11 15:04
BoyleSports🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.46%E -3.64%K -10.92%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.56%E -3.03%K -5.04%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-08-11 15:04
Coral🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.72%E -4.54%K -14.00%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.56%E -3.03%K -5.04%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-11 15:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.72%E -4.54%K -14.00%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.56%E -3.03%K -5.04%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-11 15:05
theScore Bet🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.72%E -4.54%K -14.00%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.56%E -3.03%K -5.04%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-11 15:05
NordicBet🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -7.35%E -5.00%K -15.64%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -7.56%E -3.03%K -5.04%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-08-11 15:04
Marathon Bet🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.15%EV -6.72%E -4.54%K -14.00%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 37.85%EV -10.15%E -4.18%K -7.10%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-11 15:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
ProphetX◎	1.53I 65.36%NM 64.34%	2.76I 36.23%NM 35.66%	1.6%	2026-08-11 15:50

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