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Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Himeno Sakatsume v Leolia Jeanjean

Kickoff: 2026-08-11 17:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Himeno Sakatsume (Local)

Prediction 38.11%2.62fair odd
EV -0.914%
Edge -0.352%
Kelly -0.572%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.59%37.97%37.90%39.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.492.492.6042.02%40.16%40.16%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leolia Jeanjean (Visit)

Prediction 61.89%1.62fair odd
EV -3.45%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -6.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.76%62.03%62.10%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.521.521.5668.03%65.71%65.79%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Himeno Sakatsume (Local): 38.11%; Leolia Jeanjean (Visit): 61.89%. For Himeno Sakatsume (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.62. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.60, with an expected value of -0.914%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -0.914%E -0.352%K -0.572%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.16%E -4.78%K -14.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-11 17:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -2.06%E -0.801%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -3.45%E -2.21%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-11 15:44
BetOnline.ag🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -2.06%E -0.801%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -3.45%E -2.21%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-11 15:45
Pinnacle🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.90%EV -3.20%E -1.26%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.10%EV -4.07%E -2.63%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-11 16:20
GTbets🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -3.20%E -1.26%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -5.93%E -3.90%K -11.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-11 14:35
NordicBet🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.12%EV -5.11%E -2.05%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.88%EV -9.02%E -6.14%K -19.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-11 14:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.63%E -2.71%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.16%E -4.78%K -14.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 14:34
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.63%E -2.71%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.16%E -4.78%K -14.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 14:35
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -8.54%E -3.56%K -6.10%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.07%E -2.63%K -7.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-11 14:39
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -8.54%E -3.56%K -6.10%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.31%E -3.47%K -10.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 17:04
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -9.30%E -3.91%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.34%EV -7.16%E -4.78%K -14.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-11 17:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58%0.9%2026-08-11 17:25

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