Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Harriet Dart v Moyuka Uchijima

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Harriet Dart (Local)

Prediction 41.56%2.41fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -2.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.57%41.53%41.51%42.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.262.252.3445.87%44.25%44.35%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Moyuka Uchijima (Visit)

Prediction 58.44%1.71fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -5.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.14%58.47%58.49%59.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.621.611.6563.69%61.86%62.11%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Harriet Dart (Local): 41.56%; Moyuka Uchijima (Visit): 58.44%. For Harriet Dart (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.34, with an expected value of -2.76%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -2.76%E -1.18%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -3.57%E -2.16%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-11 18:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -2.76%E -1.18%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -3.57%E -2.16%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-11 18:50
GTbets🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -2.76%E -1.18%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -5.90%E -3.67%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-11 14:35
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.67%EV -4.01%E -1.73%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.33%EV -3.57%E -2.16%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-12 00:20
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.49%E -4.06%K -10.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-11 18:34
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.24%E -5.25%K -14.46%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-11 18:54
NordicBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 41.84%EV -8.16%E -3.69%K -6.75%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.16%EV -7.07%E -4.45%K -11.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-11 18:49
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.57%E -2.16%K -5.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-11 18:30
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.32%E -3.28%K -8.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-12 00:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.90%E -3.67%K -9.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-11 14:34
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.90%E -3.67%K -9.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-11 14:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.18%EV -9.41%E -4.32%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 57.82%EV -7.07%E -4.45%K -11.99%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-12 00:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX2.34I 42.74%NM 42.08%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.92%1.6%2026-08-11 22:20