Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hanne Vandewinkel v Akasha Urhobo

Kickoff: 2026-08-11 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hanne Vandewinkel (Local)

Prediction 72.30%1.38fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -4.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.51%72.35%72.30%73.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.311.311.3678.13%76.48%76.63%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Akasha Urhobo (Visit)

Prediction 27.70%3.61fair odd
EV -0.271%
Edge -0.075%
Kelly -0.104%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.68%27.65%27.70%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.373.303.6032.26%29.64%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hanne Vandewinkel (Local): 72.30%; Akasha Urhobo (Visit): 27.70%. For Akasha Urhobo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -0.271%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -1.68%E -1.23%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -14.12%E -4.56%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-11 17:10
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.01%EV -4.57%E -3.46%K -14.27%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.99%EV -1.10%E -0.309%K -0.429%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-11 16:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.29%E -4.04%K -17.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.271%E -0.075%K -0.104%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-11 14:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.29%E -4.04%K -17.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.271%E -0.075%K -0.104%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-11 14:34
BetUS🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.65%EV -5.29%E -4.04%K -17.07%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.35%EV -3.60%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-11 18:00
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -5.29%E -4.04%K -17.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -8.58%E -2.60%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-11 15:40
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.01%E -4.63%K -20.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.04%E -0.869%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-11 14:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -6.01%E -4.63%K -20.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.58%E -2.60%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-11 14:34
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -6.01%E -4.63%K -20.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.58%E -2.60%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-11 14:35
NordicBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -6.01%E -4.63%K -20.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -9.97%E -3.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-11 14:35
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.74%E -5.22%K -23.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -9.97%E -3.07%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-11 14:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.68%EV -7.46%E -5.83%K -26.64%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.32%EV -10.24%E -3.16%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-11 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX1.34I 74.63%NM 73.93%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-08-11 18:50