Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Diana Shnaider v Tatjana Maria

Inicio: 2026-08-15 18:25 UTC

Final: Diana Shnaider 2–0 Tatjana Maria

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Diana Shnaider (Local)

Predicción 75.70%1.32momio equitativo
EV +41.57%
Ventaja +22.23%
Kelly +47.78%
Crecimiento +19.86%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.87

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.00%73.26%75.73%77.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.211.271.251.8782.64%78.62%80.00%53.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Tatjana Maria (Visitante)

Predicción 24.30%4.12momio equitativo
EV +1.80%
Ventaja +0.429%
Kelly +0.563%
Crecimiento +0.010%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.19

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.69%26.74%24.27%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.833.803.854.1954.64%26.31%25.97%23.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Diana Shnaider (Local): 75.70%; Tatjana Maria (Visitante): 24.30%. Para Diana Shnaider (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 1.32. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 1.87, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +41.57%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +41.57%E +22.23%K +47.78%G +19.86%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -54.57%E -29.18%K -62.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 18:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV +38.54%E +21.06%K +46.43%G +17.90%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -55.54%E -30.35%K -66.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 18:24
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -3.10%E -2.42%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -12.54%E -3.48%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 18:09
Pinnacle🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.70%EV -3.86%E -3.04%K -14.28%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 23.30%EV +1.55%E +0.372%K +0.489%G +0.008%2.7%2026-08-15 16:15
Coolbet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.35%EV -3.86%E -3.04%K -14.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV -0.389%E -0.095%K -0.126%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 17:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -3.86%E -3.04%K -14.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-14 11:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.81%EV -3.86%E -3.04%K -14.28%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.19%EV -3.30%E -0.830%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 11:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.81%EV -3.86%E -3.04%K -14.28%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.19%EV -3.30%E -0.830%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 11:24
FanDuel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -3.86%E -3.04%K -14.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -5.25%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-15 16:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.86%E -3.04%K -14.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -8.89%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 10:19
theScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -3.86%E -3.04%K -14.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -10.11%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 04:30
GTbets🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.40%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.60%EV -0.875%E -0.214%K -0.284%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 17:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-15 11:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.25%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 11:25
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:20
TABtouch🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
BetRivers🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
Casumo🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
Grosvenor🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
Bally Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
betPARX🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:19
Neds🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -10.11%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -10.11%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 18:10
Caesars🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.61%E -3.66%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -12.54%E -3.48%K -4.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 18:24
BetAnything🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -0.389%E -0.095%K -0.126%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-15 16:19
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -2.58%E -0.642%K -0.856%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 18:23
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 10:44
Bovada🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 18:03
BoyleSports🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 13:00
BetUS🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 18:09
Fanatics🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 17:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.82%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.18%EV -4.76%E -1.21%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 16:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -5.25%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 11:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 18:00
ReBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 18:23
NordicBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 18:24
Betsson🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 18:24
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.89%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 18:18
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.89%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 18:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.89%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 18:19
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.89%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 10:34
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.89%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 16:20
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.89%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 16:19
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.89%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.89%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 16:20
betano_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.54%E -3.48%K -4.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 11:24
Bet Victor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.37%E -4.30%K -21.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.54%E -3.48%K -4.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 11:25
BetMGM🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -6.13%E -4.94%K -25.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 18:08
LeoVegas🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -6.13%E -4.94%K -25.53%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 16:55
DraftKings🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.31%EV -6.88%E -5.60%K -29.93%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.69%EV +1.80%E +0.429%K +0.563%G +0.010%5.2%2026-08-15 18:24
SportsBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.12%EV -6.88%E -5.60%K -29.93%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.88%EV -4.76%E -1.21%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 16:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.05%EV -6.88%E -5.60%K -29.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -10.11%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 10:19
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.64%E -6.26%K -34.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -5.25%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 18:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.64%E -6.26%K -34.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -5.25%E -1.35%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 18:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -7.64%E -6.26%K -34.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -7.68%E -2.02%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-14 21:24
Fliff🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.09%EV -8.40%E -6.94%K -39.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -6.46%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 18:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-08-15 18:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-08-15 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-08-15 18:20
ProphetX◎1.25I 80.00%NM 78.45%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%2.0%2026-08-15 18:25
Matchbook◎1.25I 80.00%NM 78.26%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74%2.2%2026-08-15 18:24
Novig◎1.26I 79.37%NM 77.17%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.83%2.8%2026-08-15 18:20
Smarkets◎1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%4.0%2026-08-15 18:25