Language:English
Sonay Kartal v Andrea Lazaro Garcia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sonay Kartal (Local)
Prediction 74.68%1.34fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -9.70%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.04%74.67%74.80%76.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.271.261.3083.33%78.89%79.37%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Andrea Lazaro Garcia (Visit)
Prediction 25.32%3.95fair odd
EV +1.26%
Edge +0.316%
Kelly +0.421%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.81%25.33%25.20%27.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.733.754.0029.85%26.80%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sonay Kartal (Local): 74.68%; Andrea Lazaro Garcia (Visit): 25.32%. For Andrea Lazaro Garcia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.95. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.26%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.64%E -5.32%K -26.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +1.26%E +0.316%K +0.421%G +0.005% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.05%EV -6.64%E -5.32%K -26.58%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 23.95%EV +0.504%E +0.127%K +0.170%G +0.001% | 5.2% | 2026-09-29 12:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.29%EV -3.66%E -2.84%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.71%EV -0.509%E -0.129%K -0.174%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-01 02:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -5.15%E -4.06%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -1.27%E -0.325%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-30 23:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -1.27%E -0.325%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -1.27%E -0.325%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -1.27%E -0.325%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 03:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.53%E -0.658%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 04:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.53%E -0.658%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.53%E -0.658%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.53%E -0.658%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.53%E -0.658%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.53%E -0.658%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.53%E -0.658%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.53%E -0.658%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.53%E -0.658%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.53%E -0.658%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.53%E -0.658%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.53%E -0.658%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.53%E -0.658%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.53%E -0.658%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.53%E -0.658%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.40%E -3.44%K -15.73%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -3.80%E -1.000%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-01 04:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.15%E -4.06%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.80%E -1.000%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-30 23:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.15%E -4.06%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.80%E -1.000%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.15%E -4.06%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.80%E -1.000%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-30 18:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.64%E -5.32%K -26.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -3.80%E -1.000%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-29 13:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -8.89%E -7.28%K -40.39%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -3.80%E -1.000%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-01 04:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.66%E -2.84%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -5.07%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-30 12:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.66%E -2.84%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -5.07%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-01 02:23 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.66%E -2.84%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -5.07%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.15%E -4.06%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.07%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.07%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.07%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.64%E -5.32%K -26.58%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.07%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.64%E -5.32%K -26.58%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.07%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-30 13:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.64%E -5.32%K -26.58%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.07%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-30 12:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.35%EV -3.66%E -2.84%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.65%EV -5.32%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-01 00:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.35%EV -3.66%E -2.84%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.65%EV -5.32%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-01 00:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -4.40%E -3.44%K -15.73%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -7.60%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 02:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.98%EV -4.40%E -3.44%K -15.73%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.02%EV -7.85%E -2.16%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 04:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.73%EV -3.66%E -2.84%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.27%EV -8.36%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 02:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.66%E -2.84%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.86%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 04:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.66%E -2.84%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.86%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.90%E -4.68%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.86%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-29 22:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.64%E -5.32%K -26.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.86%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-29 12:11 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.64%E -5.32%K -26.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.86%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-29 12:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.64%E -5.32%K -26.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.86%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-30 02:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.84%EV -9.63%E -7.96%K -45.87%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -8.86%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-30 08:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.00%EV -10.38%E -8.65%K -51.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -8.86%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-30 22:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.91%E -2.24%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -11.39%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 04:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.91%E -2.24%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -11.39%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 04:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.91%E -2.24%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -11.39%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 04:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.91%E -2.24%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -11.39%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 04:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.66%E -2.84%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -11.39%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.40%E -3.44%K -15.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -11.39%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.40%E -3.44%K -15.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -11.39%E -3.26%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -2.91%E -2.24%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -15.19%E -4.53%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -2.91%E -2.24%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -15.19%E -4.53%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.23% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.77% | 0.1% | 2026-10-01 04:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.23% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.77% | 0.1% | 2026-10-01 04:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.23% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.77% | 0.1% | 2026-10-01 04:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.23% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.77% | 0.1% | 2026-10-01 04:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.61% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.39% | 2.5% | 2026-10-01 04:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24% | 3.1% | 2026-10-01 04:10 |