Language:English
Sara Bejlek v Naomi Osaka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sara Bejlek (Local)
Prediction 27.42%3.65fair odd
EV +6.39%
Edge +1.65%
Kelly +2.22%
Growth +0.142%
assuming max odds 3.88
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.51%27.39%27.44%29.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.433.453.8831.75%29.18%28.99%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Naomi Osaka (Visit)
Prediction 72.58%1.38fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -8.07%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.64%72.61%72.56%75.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.301.301.3479.37%76.67%76.92%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sara Bejlek (Local): 27.42%; Naomi Osaka (Visit): 72.58%. For Sara Bejlek (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.39%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.51%EV +6.39%E +1.65%K +2.22%G +0.142% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.49%EV -8.55%E -6.78%K -32.88%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-04 11:01 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.68I 27.17%NM 26.55%EV +0.904%E +0.246%K +0.337%G +0.003% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.45%EV -3.47%E -2.61%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-10-04 07:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV +0.081%E +0.022%K +0.031%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.82%E -6.16%K -28.97%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-04 10:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -1.29%E -0.358%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -4.19%E -3.18%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-04 05:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -1.29%E -0.358%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.92%E -3.76%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-04 07:09 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.12%EV -3.48%E -0.990%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.88%EV -4.92%E -3.76%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-02 13:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -4.03%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.19%E -3.18%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-04 10:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.03%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.92%E -3.76%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-02 12:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.03%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.92%E -3.76%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-04 10:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.03%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 10:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.03%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 13:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.03%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 07:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.03%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 11:01 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.03%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 11:01 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.03%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 18:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.03%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 18:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -4.03%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -7.82%E -6.16%K -28.97%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-04 10:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.44%EV -4.31%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.56%EV -4.19%E -3.18%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-04 07:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.44%EV -4.31%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.56%EV -4.19%E -3.18%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-04 07:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -4.92%E -3.76%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 05:21 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -4.92%E -3.76%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 10:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 11:56 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 11:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 11:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 11:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 11:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 11:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-04 07:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 11:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 11:56 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 11:56 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 11:56 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 11:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 11:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 11:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 11:56 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-04 07:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -6.23%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.15%EV -4.19%E -3.18%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 10:46 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%EV -6.23%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%EV -4.92%E -3.76%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 02:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.77%E -1.99%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.19%E -3.18%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 09:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.77%E -1.99%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.19%E -3.18%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 20:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.77%E -1.99%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -4.92%E -3.76%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-04 07:06 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.77%E -1.99%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-04 11:01 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.77%E -1.99%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-03 12:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.77%E -1.99%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-04 07:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.77%E -1.99%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-04 07:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.77%E -1.99%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.37%E -4.94%K -21.97%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-02 15:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.77%E -1.99%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -7.82%E -6.16%K -28.97%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-02 14:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.51%EV -7.87%E -2.34%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.49%EV -2.74%E -2.05%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-04 10:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.14%E -2.43%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.19%E -3.18%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 23:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.52%E -2.88%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.47%E -2.61%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 15:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.52%E -2.88%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.47%E -2.61%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 15:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.52%E -2.88%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.47%E -2.61%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 15:41 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.52%E -2.88%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.47%E -2.61%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 15:41 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.52%E -2.88%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-04 07:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -9.52%E -2.88%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -7.82%E -6.16%K -28.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-04 11:01 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.89%E -3.35%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.47%E -2.61%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-04 05:11 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -10.89%E -3.35%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.06%EV -8.55%E -6.78%K -32.88%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-02 11:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -12.26%E -3.83%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -3.47%E -2.61%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-04 07:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -12.26%E -3.83%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -3.47%E -2.61%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-04 07:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -12.26%E -3.83%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-03 07:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -12.26%E -3.83%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -5.65%E -4.34%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-03 07:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -13.63%E -4.33%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.43%EV -8.55%E -6.78%K -32.88%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-03 17:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.61% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.39% | 0.2% | 2026-10-04 11:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.61% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.39% | 0.2% | 2026-10-04 11:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-10-04 10:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 1.1% | 2026-10-04 11:01 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.15% | 2.0% | 2026-10-04 11:01 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.71% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.29% | 2.6% | 2026-10-04 11:01 |