Language:English
Nikola Bartunkova v Aryna Sabalenka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nikola Bartunkova (Local)
Prediction 16.76%5.97fair odd
EV +10.80%
Edge +1.63%
Kelly +1.92%
Growth +0.208%
assuming max odds 6.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.49%16.70%16.79%18.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.565.506.6120.41%17.97%18.18%15.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Aryna Sabalenka (Visit)
Prediction 83.24%1.20fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -2.97%
Kelly -21.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.17%83.30%83.21%85.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.141.141.1690.91%87.69%87.72%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nikola Bartunkova (Local): 16.76%; Aryna Sabalenka (Visit): 83.24%. For Nikola Bartunkova (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.97. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.80%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 6.61I 15.13%NM 14.49%EV +10.80%E +1.63%K +1.92%G +0.208% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.51%EV -6.77%E -6.05%K -56.45%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-04 03:01 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV +7.28%E +1.14%K +1.35%G +0.098% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -6.77%E -6.05%K -56.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-03 20:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV +7.28%E +1.14%K +1.35%G +0.098% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -6.77%E -6.05%K -56.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-03 20:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.32I 15.82%NM 15.39%EV +5.94%E +0.939%K +1.12%G +0.066% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.61%EV -4.28%E -3.72%K -28.51%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-04 02:36 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.43%EV +4.76%E +0.762%K +0.907%G +0.043% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.57%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-03 12:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.86%EV +1.41%E +0.233%K +0.279%G +0.004% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.14%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-04 00:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.86%EV +1.41%E +0.233%K +0.279%G +0.004% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.14%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-04 00:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +0.573%E +0.095%K +0.115%G +0.001% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.94%E -5.26%K -45.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 04:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +0.573%E +0.095%K +0.115%G +0.001% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.94%E -5.26%K -45.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 08:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +0.573%E +0.095%K +0.115%G +0.001% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.94%E -5.26%K -45.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 20:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +0.573%E +0.095%K +0.115%G +0.001% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.77%E -6.05%K -56.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 07:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +0.573%E +0.095%K +0.115%G +0.001% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.77%E -6.05%K -56.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 19:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.07%EV -1.10%E -0.187%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.93%EV -5.94%E -5.26%K -45.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-03 12:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -2.78%E -0.479%K -0.579%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 02:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -3.62%E -0.629%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 22:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -3.62%E -0.629%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 16:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV -3.62%E -0.629%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.94%EV -8.44%E -7.67%K -84.38%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-04 03:01 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.72I 17.48%NM 16.50%EV -4.12%E -0.720%K -0.873%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.50%EV -5.94%E -5.26%K -45.70%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 20:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.67%EV -4.46%E -0.782%K -0.948%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.33%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 19:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.18%EV -4.46%E -0.782%K -0.948%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.82%EV -8.44%E -7.67%K -84.38%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-03 14:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.79%EV -5.29%E -0.937%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.21%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-03 18:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -6.13%E -1.10%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 20:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -6.13%E -1.10%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 03:01 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -6.13%E -1.10%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -7.61%E -6.85%K -69.15%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-04 02:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.16%EV -6.97%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.84%EV -4.28%E -3.72%K -28.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 02:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -7.81%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.28%E -3.72%K -28.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-04 02:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.81%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 07:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.81%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 07:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.81%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 20:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.81%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 07:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.81%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 07:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.81%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 09:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.81%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 15:51 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.81%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 19:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.81%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 18:01 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -7.81%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.94%E -5.26%K -45.70%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 15:51 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -7.81%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.94%E -5.26%K -45.70%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 15:51 |
| TAB🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -7.81%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.94%E -5.26%K -45.70%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-02 21:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -9.48%E -1.76%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.28%E -3.72%K -28.51%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 03:01 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -9.48%E -1.76%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.28%E -3.72%K -28.51%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 03:01 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -11.16%E -2.11%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 20:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -11.16%E -2.11%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 20:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -11.16%E -2.11%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 20:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -11.16%E -2.11%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 20:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -11.16%E -2.11%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 20:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -11.16%E -2.11%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 20:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -11.16%E -2.11%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 20:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -11.16%E -2.11%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 20:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -11.16%E -2.11%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 20:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -11.16%E -2.11%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 20:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -11.16%E -2.11%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 20:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -11.16%E -2.11%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 20:54 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -11.16%E -2.11%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 20:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -11.16%E -2.11%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 20:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -12.00%E -2.29%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.28%E -3.72%K -28.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 20:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.46%EV -12.84%E -2.47%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 82.54%EV -8.44%E -7.67%K -84.38%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-03 17:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -16.19%E -3.24%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 15:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -16.19%E -3.24%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -3.44%E -2.97%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 15:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -16.19%E -3.24%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-04 02:53 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -16.19%E -3.24%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-04 02:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -16.19%E -3.24%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.11%E -4.48%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-04 02:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.47%EV -17.87%E -3.65%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.53%EV -7.61%E -6.85%K -69.15%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-03 20:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 0.6% | 2026-10-04 03:01 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 0.6% | 2026-10-04 02:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 1.1% | 2026-10-04 02:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 1.1% | 2026-10-04 02:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.55% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.45% | 2.1% | 2026-10-04 03:01 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82% | 7.8% | 2026-10-04 03:01 |