Language:English
Jelena Ostapenko v Elise Mertens
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jelena Ostapenko (Local)
Prediction 36.99%2.70fair odd
EV -0.861%
Edge -0.321%
Kelly -0.512%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.47%37.10%36.87%39.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.542.552.6843.48%39.36%39.22%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Elise Mertens (Visit)
Prediction 63.01%1.59fair odd
EV -1.71%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -3.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.53%62.90%63.13%64.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.511.511.5669.44%66.22%66.23%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jelena Ostapenko (Local): 36.99%; Elise Mertens (Visit): 63.01%. For Jelena Ostapenko (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.70. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.68, with an expected value of -0.861%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -0.861%E -0.321%K -0.512%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -6.12%E -4.11%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-05 06:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.58%EV -1.23%E -0.461%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.42%EV -2.97%E -1.93%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-10-05 07:46 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -1.23%E -0.461%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -6.75%E -4.56%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 06:46 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -1.97%E -0.744%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -6.75%E -4.56%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-05 07:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -2.71%E -1.03%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-05 07:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -2.71%E -1.03%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-05 06:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87%EV -3.08%E -1.18%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-05 07:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87%EV -3.08%E -1.18%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-05 07:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.08%E -1.18%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-05 08:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.08%E -1.18%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-05 07:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.08%E -1.18%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.27%E -6.44%K -21.07%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-05 06:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.23%E -2.78%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-05 07:06 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.86%E -3.22%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-05 07:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.86%E -3.22%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-05 07:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.86%E -3.22%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-05 07:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 07:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 07:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.75%E -4.56%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-04 21:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.75%E -4.56%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-04 21:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.75%E -4.56%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-04 21:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -4.56%E -1.77%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -4.86%E -3.22%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 07:31 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%EV -4.56%E -1.77%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 07:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -2.97%E -1.93%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-05 07:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.23%E -2.78%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 00:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.86%E -3.22%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 00:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-05 07:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-05 07:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-05 07:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-05 07:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -6.75%E -4.56%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 07:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.64%E -5.96%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-05 08:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.64%E -5.96%K -19.20%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-05 07:16 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.99%EV -6.41%E -2.53%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.01%EV -2.34%E -1.51%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-04 23:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.72%EV -7.15%E -2.85%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.28%EV -4.23%E -2.78%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-05 04:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 21:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 20:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 20:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 20:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 18:21 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 18:21 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 18:21 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 18:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 18:21 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 18:21 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 18:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 18:21 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 18:21 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.60%E -2.35%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-04 20:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 21:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 21:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 07:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 09:13 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -9.74%E -3.99%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -1.71%E -1.09%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 00:19 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -11.22%E -4.67%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-04 21:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -11.22%E -4.67%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-04 21:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.18%EV -11.96%E -5.02%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.82%EV -7.38%E -5.02%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-04 18:21 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -14.92%E -6.49%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.53%EV -5.49%E -3.66%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-05 07:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.68% | 0.4% | 2026-10-05 08:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.68% | 0.4% | 2026-10-05 08:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.68% | 0.4% | 2026-10-05 08:26 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.68% | 0.4% | 2026-10-05 08:26 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52% | 0.6% | 2026-10-05 08:26 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.20% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.80% | 2.2% | 2026-10-05 08:26 |