Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.36
assuming max odds 3.57
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Anastasia Potapova (Local): 71.67%; Sinja Kraus (Visit): 28.33%. For Sinja Kraus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.13%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV +1.13%E +0.316%K +0.440%G +0.005% | 4.9% | 2026-10-01 16:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -6.11%E -4.66%K -19.71%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV +0.563%E +0.159%K +0.221%G +0.001% | 4.5% | 2026-10-01 03:01 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -6.11%E -4.66%K -19.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -0.853%E -0.244%K -0.341%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-30 11:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.853%E -0.244%K -0.341%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 13:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.853%E -0.244%K -0.341%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 03:01 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.853%E -0.244%K -0.341%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 15:31 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.853%E -0.244%K -0.341%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 10:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.56%EV -5.39%E -4.09%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.44%EV -1.14%E -0.326%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-01 23:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.71%EV -6.11%E -4.66%K -19.71%G +0.000% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.29%EV -1.14%E -0.326%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 15:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.88%EV -3.24%E -2.40%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%EV -2.27%E -0.658%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-10-02 02:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -3.96%E -2.95%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -2.27%E -0.658%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-01 22:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.68%E -3.52%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -2.27%E -0.658%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-02 02:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -2.27%E -0.658%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -2.27%E -0.658%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -2.27%E -0.658%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -2.27%E -0.658%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -2.27%E -0.658%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -2.27%E -0.658%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 12:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -2.27%E -0.658%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -2.27%E -0.658%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -2.27%E -0.658%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -2.27%E -0.658%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -2.27%E -0.658%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 12:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -2.27%E -0.658%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -2.27%E -0.658%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -2.27%E -0.658%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%EV -6.11%E -4.66%K -19.71%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%EV -3.12%E -0.912%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 22:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.68%E -3.52%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.69%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-01 18:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.68%E -3.52%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.69%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-02 02:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.69%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-01 11:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.91%EV -5.39%E -4.09%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.09%EV -4.25%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 22:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.79%EV -5.39%E -4.09%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.21%EV -4.82%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 02:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.68%E -3.52%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -5.10%E -1.52%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 22:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.68%E -3.52%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -5.10%E -1.52%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 22:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.68%E -3.52%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -5.10%E -1.52%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 02:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.68%E -3.52%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -5.10%E -1.52%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-01 22:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.39%E -4.09%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -5.10%E -1.52%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 21:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.24%EV -3.96%E -2.95%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.76%EV -5.95%E -1.79%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-01 18:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -3.96%E -2.95%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-02 02:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.68%E -3.52%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 21:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.68%E -3.52%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 18:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.68%E -3.52%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 14:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.68%E -3.52%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 14:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.39%E -4.09%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-02 02:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.11%E -4.66%K -19.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-01 22:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.11%E -4.66%K -19.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-02 02:52 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-01 23:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -8.26%E -6.45%K -29.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-02 02:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.69%EV -11.13%E -8.97%K -46.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.31%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-01 23:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.68%E -3.52%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.94%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 18:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.68%E -3.52%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.94%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 18:51 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.68%E -3.52%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.94%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 19:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.06%EV -9.69%E -7.69%K -37.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.94%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-30 12:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -4.68%E -3.52%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-01 18:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -4.68%E -3.52%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-01 19:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-01 21:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-01 03:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.83%E -5.25%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-01 03:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -2.53%E -1.86%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 02:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -2.53%E -1.86%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 02:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -3.24%E -2.40%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -13.60%E -4.46%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-01 19:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -3.24%E -2.40%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -13.60%E -4.46%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-01 18:59 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-10-02 02:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-10-02 02:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-10-02 02:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-10-02 02:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.42% | 1.3% | 2026-10-02 02:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98% | 3.0% | 2026-10-02 02:55 |