Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Rebecca Marino v Zeynep Sonmez

Inicio: 2026-08-03 23:00 UTC

Final: Rebecca Marino 0–2 Zeynep Sonmez

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

64 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Rebecca Marino (Local)

Predicción 27.20%3.68momio equitativo
EV +2.01%
Ventaja +0.536%
Kelly +0.730%
Crecimiento +0.015%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.74%27.26%27.08%29.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.443.403.7531.25%29.03%29.41%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Zeynep Sonmez (Visitante)

Predicción 72.80%1.37momio equitativo
EV -2.45%
Ventaja -1.83%
Kelly -7.21%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.34

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
70.80%72.74%72.92%74.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.271.311.311.3478.74%76.42%76.34%74.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Rebecca Marino (Local): 27.20%; Zeynep Sonmez (Visitante): 72.80%. Para Rebecca Marino (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.68. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.75, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.01%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Winamax (DE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV +2.01%E +0.536%K +0.730%G +0.015%1.30I 76.92%NM 74.26%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-03 09:05
Pinnacle🎯3.74I 26.74%NM 25.94%EV +1.74%E +0.464%K +0.634%G +0.011%1.31I 76.34%NM 74.06%EV -4.63%E -3.54%K -14.95%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-03 18:40
Betclic (FR)🎯3.68I 27.17%NM 26.10%EV +0.104%E +0.028%K +0.039%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.90%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-03 22:49
Winamax (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -0.712%E -0.195%K -0.269%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-03 09:04
Unibet (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -0.712%E -0.195%K -0.269%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -6.09%E -4.72%K -21.00%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 22:05
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -2.07%E -0.576%K -0.797%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02%EV -3.18%E -2.39%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-02 15:45
FanDuel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -2.07%E -0.576%K -0.797%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 13:05
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -2.07%E -0.576%K -0.797%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.09%E -4.72%K -21.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 21:30
LowVig.ag🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 27.22%EV -3.98%E -1.13%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.78%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-03 05:49
BetOnline.ag🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 27.22%EV -3.98%E -1.13%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.78%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-03 05:50
1xBet🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 27.07%EV -3.98%E -1.13%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.93%EV -4.63%E -3.54%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 22:55
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-03 18:04
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-03 05:49
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-03 22:49
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-03 22:49
BoyleSports🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-03 05:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-03 22:50
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-03 13:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-02 15:45
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-02 13:44
William Hill🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-03 22:55
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.09%E -4.72%K -21.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 15:44
Coral🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.82%E -5.33%K -24.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-03 21:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.82%E -5.33%K -24.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-03 21:30
NetBet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -7.55%E -5.94%K -27.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-03 11:05
ReBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -6.15%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -4.63%E -3.54%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 22:04
Fanatics🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -6.15%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -4.63%E -3.54%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 22:54
Betr (AU)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.15%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-03 22:55
SportsBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -6.15%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -6.82%E -5.33%K -24.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-03 05:49
GTbets🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 28.03%EV -6.42%E -1.87%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.97%EV -2.45%E -1.83%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-02 14:34
Bovada🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.18%E -2.39%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-03 22:55
BetAnything🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.18%E -2.39%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-03 22:55
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 06:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 06:54
Unibet (NL)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 06:54
Grosvenor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 06:54
Casumo🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 06:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 06:54
TABtouch🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 06:54
Bally Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 06:54
betPARX🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 06:54
Svenska Spel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 06:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 06:54
BetRivers🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 12:50
Virgin Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 13:40
LiveScore Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 14:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -4.63%E -3.54%K -14.95%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-02 13:19
LeoVegas🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-03 22:44
NordicBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-03 15:00
Betsson🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-03 15:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-03 22:25
Caesars🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.09%E -4.72%K -21.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 14:24
Marathon Bet🎯3.36I 29.76%NM 28.21%EV -8.60%E -2.56%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.79%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-03 11:25
theScore Bet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-03 22:50
BetUS🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -4.63%E -3.54%K -14.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-03 19:30
Neds🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-03 21:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-03 21:30
DraftKings🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 28.76%EV -9.69%E -2.92%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.24%EV -2.45%E -1.83%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 23:00
Dabble (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.18%E -2.39%K -9.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-03 21:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -6.09%E -4.72%K -21.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-03 04:35
PlayUp🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.18%E -2.39%K -9.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-03 01:25
TAB🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -3.91%E -2.96%K -12.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-03 21:33
Bet Victor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-03 22:53
betano_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -5.36%E -4.13%K -17.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-03 22:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.85I 25.97%NM 25.96%1.35I 74.07%NM 74.04%0.0%2026-08-03 22:50
Matchbook3.75I 26.67%NM 26.61%1.36I 73.53%NM 73.39%0.2%2026-08-03 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79%0.4%2026-08-03 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79%0.4%2026-08-03 22:55
ProphetX3.60I 27.78%NM 27.13%1.34I 74.63%NM 72.87%2.4%2026-08-03 22:55
Smarkets3.65I 27.40%NM 26.71%1.33I 75.19%NM 73.29%2.6%2026-08-03 22:55
Novig3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71%2.8%2026-08-03 20:45