Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.18
assuming max odds 6.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: McCartney Kessler (Local): 81.94%; Cadence Brace (Visit): 18.06%. For Cadence Brace (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.54. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.37%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV +8.37%E +1.39%K +1.67%G +0.140% | 3.6% | 2026-08-03 16:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.75%EV -4.95%E -4.27%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.98I 16.72%NM 16.25%EV +8.00%E +1.34%K +1.61%G +0.129% | 2.9% | 2026-08-03 15:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV +4.75%E +0.819%K +0.990%G +0.047% | 4.2% | 2026-08-03 16:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -0.665%E -0.121%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.59%E -5.78%K -47.07%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -0.665%E -0.121%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 06:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.59%E -5.78%K -47.07%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -0.665%E -0.121%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-02 12:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.59%E -5.78%K -47.07%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -0.665%E -0.121%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 01:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -7.41%E -6.56%K -56.99%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -0.665%E -0.121%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-02 20:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -7.41%E -6.56%K -56.99%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -0.665%E -0.121%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-02 20:14 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -8.23%E -7.35%K -68.57%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -0.665%E -0.121%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-03 16:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.47%E -0.458%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-02 11:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.47%E -0.458%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-02 11:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.47%E -0.458%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-02 11:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.47%E -0.458%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-02 11:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.47%E -0.458%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-02 11:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.47%E -0.458%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-02 11:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.47%E -0.458%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-02 11:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.47%E -0.458%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-02 11:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.47%E -0.458%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-02 11:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.47%E -0.458%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-02 11:29 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.47%E -0.458%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-02 11:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.47%E -0.458%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-02 12:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.47%E -0.458%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-03 14:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.47%E -0.458%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-03 14:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.47%E -0.458%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-02 13:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.47%E -0.458%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-02 14:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.47%E -0.458%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-03 14:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.14%EV -4.13%E -3.53%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 5.38I 18.59%NM 17.86%EV -2.83%E -0.527%K -0.647%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-03 14:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.14%EV -4.13%E -3.53%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 5.38I 18.59%NM 17.86%EV -2.83%E -0.527%K -0.647%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-03 15:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.71%EV -9.05%E -8.15%K -82.25%G +0.000% | 5.31I 18.83%NM 17.29%EV -4.10%E -0.772%K -0.951%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-03 00:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -4.95%E -4.27%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -4.28%E -0.807%K -0.995%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.13%E -3.53%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -5.18%E -0.987%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-03 15:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.18%E -0.987%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-03 14:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.18%E -0.987%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-03 15:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.18%E -0.987%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-03 14:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.13%E -3.53%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -6.08%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-03 15:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.13%E -3.53%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -6.08%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-03 15:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.95%E -4.27%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -6.08%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 16:48 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -6.59%E -5.78%K -47.07%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -6.08%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-03 14:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.15%EV -7.41%E -6.56%K -56.99%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -6.08%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-03 04:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.24%EV -3.31%E -2.81%K -18.40%G +0.000% | 5.11I 19.57%NM 18.76%EV -7.71%E -1.51%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-03 16:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.13%E -3.53%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -7.89%E -1.55%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -3.31%E -2.81%K -18.40%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -9.70%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-03 16:47 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -3.31%E -2.81%K -18.40%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -9.70%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-03 16:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.13%E -3.53%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -9.70%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-03 14:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.95%E -4.27%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -9.70%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-03 01:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.95%E -4.27%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -9.70%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-03 16:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.95%E -4.27%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -9.70%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-02 13:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.95%E -4.27%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -9.70%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-02 14:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.59%E -5.78%K -47.07%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -9.70%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-03 15:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.59%E -5.78%K -47.07%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -9.70%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-03 15:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.59%E -5.78%K -47.07%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -9.70%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-02 14:24 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.41%EV -7.41%E -6.56%K -56.99%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.59%EV -10.60%E -2.14%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-03 16:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -3.31%E -2.81%K -18.40%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -14.21%E -2.99%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 14:35 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -3.31%E -2.81%K -18.40%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -14.21%E -2.99%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 14:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -14.21%E -2.99%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-03 16:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -14.21%E -2.99%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-03 16:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -14.21%E -2.99%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-03 16:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -14.21%E -2.99%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-03 14:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -14.21%E -2.99%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-03 14:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.47%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -14.21%E -2.99%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-03 16:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.65%EV -6.59%E -5.78%K -47.07%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -14.21%E -2.99%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-03 16:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.20%EV -4.13%E -3.53%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 4.74I 21.10%NM 19.80%EV -14.39%E -3.04%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-03 16:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.20%EV -4.13%E -3.53%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 4.74I 21.10%NM 19.80%EV -14.39%E -3.04%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-03 16:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -3.31%E -2.81%K -18.40%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -20.53%E -4.67%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-03 16:50 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 0.7% | 2026-08-03 16:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 0.7% | 2026-08-03 16:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 0.7% | 2026-08-03 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 0.7% | 2026-08-03 16:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.17% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.83% | 1.0% | 2026-08-03 16:44 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.45% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.55% | 2.4% | 2026-08-03 16:50 |
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