Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Elina Svitolina v Anastasia Potapova

2026-08-07 19:00 UTC — WTA Canadian Open

Resultado del partido

41 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Elina Svitolina (Local)

Predicción 65.85%1.52momio equitativo
EV -3.87%
Ventaja -2.65%
Kelly -8.40%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.46

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.53%65.72%65.88%66.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.381.431.431.4672.46%70.10%69.93%68.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Anastasia Potapova (Visitante)

Predicción 34.15%2.93momio equitativo
EV -2.66%
Ventaja -0.933%
Kelly -1.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.41%34.28%34.12%35.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.552.752.802.8539.22%36.32%35.71%35.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Elina Svitolina (Local): 65.85%; Anastasia Potapova (Visitante): 34.15%. Para Anastasia Potapova (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.93. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.85, con un valor esperado de -2.66%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (41 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet1.46I 68.49%NM 65.81%EV -3.87%E -2.65%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.19%EV -4.02%E -1.43%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-05 07:35
Bovada1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.52%E -3.12%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 07:33
FanDuel1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.18%E -3.60%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 05:00
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.18%E -3.60%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 05:05
LiveScore Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.18%E -3.60%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 07:15
Virgin Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.18%E -3.60%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 07:20
Hard Rock Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.18%E -3.60%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 07:55
PointsBet (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -5.18%E -3.60%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -5.05%E -1.82%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 07:25
Marathon Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -5.18%E -3.60%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -5.05%E -1.82%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 07:28
betfred_uk1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.18%E -3.60%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.07%E -2.21%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 05:04
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.18%E -3.60%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.07%E -2.21%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 05:05
Winamax (DE)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.18%E -3.60%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.07%E -2.21%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 07:15
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.18%E -3.60%K -11.78%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.51%E -4.01%K -6.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-05 07:14
DraftKings1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.84%E -4.08%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.66%E -0.933%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 07:30
Fanatics1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.84%E -4.08%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 07:25
Unibet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.84%E -4.08%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 07:19
BetRivers1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.84%E -4.08%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 07:20
Casumo1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.84%E -4.08%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 07:20
Unibet (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.84%E -4.08%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 07:20
Grosvenor1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.84%E -4.08%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 07:20
Unibet (NL)1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.84%E -4.08%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 07:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.84%E -4.08%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 07:20
TABtouch1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.84%E -4.08%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 07:19
Bally Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.84%E -4.08%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 07:19
Svenska Spel1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.84%E -4.08%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 07:20
ATG (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.84%E -4.08%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 07:20
betPARX1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.84%E -4.08%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.37%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 07:20
Betr (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.84%E -4.08%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.07%E -2.21%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-05 07:24
NordicBet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.84%E -4.08%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.07%E -2.21%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-05 05:50
Betsson1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.84%E -4.08%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.07%E -2.21%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-05 05:50
theScore Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.50%E -4.58%K -15.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.07%E -2.21%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-05 07:24
GTbets1.42I 70.42%NM 65.78%EV -6.50%E -4.58%K -15.48%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.22%EV -6.76%E -2.48%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-05 07:05
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.50%E -4.58%K -15.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -7.78%E -2.88%K -4.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-05 05:50
PMU (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -7.16%E -5.08%K -17.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -7.78%E -2.88%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 07:20
SportsBet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.82%E -5.58%K -19.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.07%E -2.21%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-05 05:00
LeoVegas1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.82%E -5.58%K -19.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.78%E -2.88%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-05 05:54
Tipico (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.82%E -5.58%K -19.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.78%E -2.88%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-05 06:30
Betclic (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.00%EV -7.82%E -5.58%K -19.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -11.20%E -4.31%K -7.00%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-05 05:53
ReBet1.40I 71.43%NM 65.00%EV -7.82%E -5.58%K -19.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -11.20%E -4.31%K -7.00%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-05 05:54
Unibet (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 64.89%EV -9.13%E -6.62%K -24.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.11%EV -12.90%E -5.06%K -8.33%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-05 05:55
Winamax (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 64.89%EV -9.13%E -6.62%K -24.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.11%EV -12.90%E -5.06%K -8.33%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-05 07:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 67.93%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07%2.2%2026-08-05 06:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 67.93%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07%2.2%2026-08-05 06:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 67.93%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07%2.2%2026-08-05 06:30
Novig1.41I 70.92%NM 66.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.65%6.9%2026-08-05 07:30
Smarkets1.37I 72.99%NM 64.78%2.52I 39.68%NM 35.22%12.7%2026-08-05 05:55