Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Elina Svitolina v Anastasia Potapova

Inicio: 2026-08-07 02:01 UTC

Final: Elina Svitolina 2–0 Anastasia Potapova

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Elina Svitolina (Local)

Predicción 69.12%1.45momio equitativo
EV -0.464%
Ventaja -0.322%
Kelly -1.05%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
66.27%68.91%69.02%71.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.301.371.371.4476.92%72.93%72.99%69.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Anastasia Potapova (Visitante)

Predicción 30.88%3.24momio equitativo
EV +2.21%
Ventaja +0.666%
Kelly +0.955%
Crecimiento +0.021%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.31

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.26%31.09%30.98%33.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.753.013.003.3136.36%33.26%33.33%30.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Elina Svitolina (Local): 69.12%; Anastasia Potapova (Visitante): 30.88%. Para Anastasia Potapova (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.24. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.31, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.21%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.58%EV -4.61%E -3.34%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.42%EV +2.21%E +0.666%K +0.955%G +0.021%2.7%2026-08-07 01:56
Dabble (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.07%E -6.07%K -24.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.90%E +0.575%K +0.825%G +0.016%5.5%2026-08-07 02:01
TAB🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -10.14%E -7.80%K -33.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV +1.90%E +0.575%K +0.825%G +0.016%7.2%2026-08-07 01:59
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.99%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +0.353%E +0.109%K +0.157%G +0.001%4.3%2026-08-06 23:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.87%EV -4.61%E -3.34%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.13%EV -1.19%E -0.372%K -0.541%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-06 20:21
Betway🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.87%EV -4.61%E -3.34%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.13%EV -1.19%E -0.372%K -0.541%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-07 01:55
BetAnything🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -5.30%E -3.87%K -14.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -1.19%E -0.372%K -0.541%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-07 00:10
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.99%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.19%E -0.372%K -0.541%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-07 02:01
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.99%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.19%E -0.372%K -0.541%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-06 21:40
BetUS🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.99%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.19%E -0.372%K -0.541%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-06 21:40
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -8.07%E -6.07%K -24.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -1.19%E -0.372%K -0.541%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-07 02:01
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.80%EV -4.61%E -3.34%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.20%EV -1.50%E -0.470%K -0.685%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-07 00:01
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.80%EV -4.61%E -3.34%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.20%EV -1.50%E -0.470%K -0.685%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-07 00:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.30%E -3.87%K -14.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -2.73%E -0.868%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-06 20:20
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.99%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.73%E -0.868%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 02:00
Coolbet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.99%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.73%E -0.868%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 02:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.69%E -4.95%K -19.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -2.73%E -0.868%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-07 01:58
LeoVegas🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.69%E -4.95%K -19.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -2.73%E -0.868%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-07 02:01
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.25%EV -8.07%E -6.07%K -24.45%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.75%EV -3.04%E -0.969%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-07 02:00
DraftKings🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.71%EV -5.99%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.29%EV -3.35%E -1.07%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-07 02:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.30%E -3.87%K -14.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 00:16
1xBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.75%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.25%EV -4.90%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-07 01:19
ReBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.61%E -3.34%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 00:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -6.69%E -4.95%K -19.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-07 02:01
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.78%EV -4.61%E -3.34%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.22%EV -6.13%E -2.02%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 01:15
Betsson🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.02%EV -5.99%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 30.98%EV -6.44%E -2.13%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-07 01:56
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.61%E -3.34%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 22:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.30%E -3.87%K -14.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-07 00:15
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.30%E -3.87%K -14.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-07 01:59
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.99%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-06 20:05
Caesars🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.99%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-07 02:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.99%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-07 02:01
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.99%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-07 02:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.99%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-07 00:00
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -5.99%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-07 01:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.93%EV -8.07%E -6.07%K -24.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-07 01:58
Fliff🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.93%EV -8.07%E -6.07%K -24.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-07 02:00
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 02:01
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 02:00
Casumo🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 02:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 02:01
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 02:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 02:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 02:00
betPARX🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 01:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 02:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.61%E -3.34%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-06 20:10
Neds🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.61%E -3.34%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-06 20:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -6.69%E -4.95%K -19.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-07 02:01
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -0.464%E -0.322%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -11.07%E -3.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-07 00:20
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -5.99%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -11.07%E -3.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-06 20:05
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -5.99%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -11.07%E -3.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-06 20:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -4.61%E -3.34%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -12.00%E -4.21%K -6.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-07 02:00
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -4.61%E -3.34%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -12.00%E -4.21%K -6.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-07 02:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -4.61%E -3.34%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -12.00%E -4.21%K -6.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-07 02:01
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -4.61%E -3.34%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -12.00%E -4.21%K -6.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-07 02:01
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -4.61%E -3.34%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -12.00%E -4.21%K -6.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-07 02:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -5.99%E -4.41%K -16.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -13.54%E -4.84%K -7.52%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-07 02:01
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -15.09%E -5.49%K -8.62%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-07 02:00
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -15.09%E -5.49%K -8.62%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-07 02:01
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -15.09%E -5.49%K -8.62%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-07 02:01
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -15.09%E -5.49%K -8.62%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-07 02:01
PMU (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.40%EV -8.07%E -6.07%K -24.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.60%EV -15.09%E -5.49%K -8.62%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-07 02:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-08-07 01:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-08-07 01:45
Matchbook◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-08-07 02:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.3%2026-08-07 02:01
Novig◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.40%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.60%1.5%2026-08-07 02:00
ProphetX◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.21%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%1.7%2026-08-07 02:01
Smarkets◎1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81%3.2%2026-08-07 02:01