Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zsombor Piros v Billy Harris

Kickoff: 2026-06-24 10:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zsombor Piros (Local)

Prediction 40.78%2.45fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -2.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.17%40.56%41.10%42.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.322.342.3845.45%43.12%42.74%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Billy Harris (Visit)

Prediction 59.22%1.69fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.657%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.72%59.44%58.90%61.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.561.571.6770.42%64.07%63.69%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zsombor Piros (Local): 40.78%; Billy Harris (Visit): 59.22%. For Billy Harris (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.69. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.67, with an expected value of -1.10%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
ReBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -2.95%E -1.24%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -5.84%E -3.67%K -9.89%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-24 09:30
GTbets🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -2.95%E -1.24%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -6.43%E -4.07%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-24 09:29
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -2.95%E -1.24%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -9.39%E -6.14%K -17.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-23 12:29
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.17%E -1.78%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.43%E -4.07%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-24 08:10
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -4.17%E -1.78%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -7.61%E -4.88%K -13.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-24 09:30
NordicBet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.15%EV -4.58%E -1.96%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.85%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-24 09:30
MyBookie.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.21%E -2.70%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.20%E -5.29%K -14.92%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-24 09:29
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -6.21%E -2.70%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 61.83%EV -15.90%E -11.20%K -37.86%G +0.000%13.9%2026-06-24 09:29
Pinnacle🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV -7.03%E -3.08%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -1.10%E -0.657%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-24 09:30
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.25%E -3.67%K -6.60%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.02%E -4.47%K -12.32%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-24 09:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -10.29%E -4.68%K -8.58%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.67%EV -8.20%E -5.29%K -14.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-24 09:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%0.5%2026-06-24 09:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51%1.2%2026-06-24 09:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51%1.2%2026-06-24 09:30
Smarkets2.42I 41.32%NM 40.39%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.61%2.3%2026-06-24 09:30