Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yi Zhou v Billy Harris

Kickoff: 2026-06-25 10:12 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yi Zhou (Local)

Prediction 34.25%2.92fair odd
EV +4.11%
Edge +1.35%
Kelly +2.01%
Growth +0.083%

assuming max odds 3.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.40%34.38%34.47%38.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.732.713.0441.67%36.56%36.97%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Billy Harris (Visit)

Prediction 65.75%1.52fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.912%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.70%65.62%65.53%68.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.431.421.5075.19%69.89%70.67%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yi Zhou (Local): 34.25%; Billy Harris (Visit): 65.75%. For Yi Zhou (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.92. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV +4.11%E +1.35%K +2.01%G +0.083%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -7.29%E -5.17%K -17.77%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-25 10:10
ReBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV +1.02%E +0.347%K +0.525%G +0.005%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -7.29%E -5.17%K -17.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-25 09:59
GTbets🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +1.02%E +0.347%K +0.525%G +0.005%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -9.26%E -6.71%K -24.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-25 09:59
MyBookie.ag🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV +1.02%E +0.347%K +0.525%G +0.005%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -11.23%E -8.32%K -32.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-25 10:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.67%EV -1.72%E -0.598%K -0.917%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.33%EV -12.55%E -9.43%K -38.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-25 10:00
NordicBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.06%EV -7.19%E -2.65%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.94%EV -7.94%E -5.67%K -19.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-25 10:09
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -7.54%E -2.79%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.63%E -4.67%K -15.78%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-25 10:10
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.25%E -3.49%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.68%E -1.81%K -5.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-25 10:07
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.96%E -4.22%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.37%E -0.912%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-25 10:08
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -14.39%E -5.75%K -9.59%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -1.37%E -0.912%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-25 10:10
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -14.39%E -5.75%K -9.59%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -1.37%E -0.912%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-25 10:10
Fliff🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -17.81%E -7.42%K -12.72%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -2.03%E -1.36%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-25 10:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%0.7%2026-06-25 10:10
ProphetX2.64I 37.88%NM 37.14%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.86%2.0%2026-06-25 10:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%2.8%2026-06-25 10:10
Smarkets2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%4.0%2026-06-25 10:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.92I 34.25%NM 32.72%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.28%4.7%2026-06-25 10:10