Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vilius Gaubas v Michael Mmoh

Kickoff: 2026-06-22 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

37%

63%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vilius Gaubas (Local)

Prediction 37.29%2.68fair odd

EV +8.51%

Edge +2.93%

Kelly +4.46%

Growth +0.379%

assuming max odds 2.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.10%37.42%39.09%42.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.202.562.522.9145.45%39.14%39.60%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michael Mmoh (Visit)

Prediction 62.71%1.59fair odd

EV +0.337%

Edge +0.211%

Kelly +0.562%

Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.89%62.58%60.91%66.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.411.491.481.6070.92%67.23%67.57%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vilius Gaubas (Local): 37.29%; Michael Mmoh (Visit): 62.71%. For Vilius Gaubas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.91, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.91I 34.36%NM 33.10%EV +8.51%E +2.93%K +4.46%G +0.379%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.90%EV -9.70%E -6.73%K -22.04%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-06-22 14:09
ReBet🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +4.41%E +1.58%K +2.45%G +0.108%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -9.07%E -6.25%K -20.15%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-06-22 13:59
Marathon Bet🎯	2.78I 35.97%NM 33.65%EV +3.66%E +1.32%K +2.06%G +0.075%	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.35%EV -11.58%E -8.21%K -28.24%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-06-22 14:09
PlayUp🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +2.55%E +0.926%K +1.45%G +0.037%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -9.07%E -6.25%K -20.15%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-22 15:46
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV +0.681%E +0.252%K +0.401%G +0.003%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -9.07%E -6.25%K -20.15%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-22 15:49
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -1.18%E -0.446%K -0.717%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -10.95%E -7.71%K -26.07%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-06-22 13:39
theScore Bet🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -10.51%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -3.43%E -2.22%K -6.34%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-06-22 15:49
Paddy Power🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -11.25%E -4.73%K -8.15%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.05%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-06-22 15:50
BoyleSports🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -11.25%E -4.73%K -8.15%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.05%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-06-22 15:49
NordicBet🎯	2.36I 42.37%NM 39.18%EV -12.00%E -5.08%K -8.82%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 60.82%EV -4.68%E -3.08%K -9.00%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-06-22 15:49
Fliff🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.12%EV -12.37%E -5.26%K -9.16%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 60.88%EV -5.31%E -3.51%K -10.41%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-06-22 15:49
Betway🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -17.96%E -8.17%K -14.97%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV +0.337%E +0.211%K +0.562%G +0.002%	8.0%	2026-06-22 15:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41%	1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59%	0.5%	2026-06-22 15:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.93%	4.5%	2026-06-22 15:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.78I 35.97%NM 33.97%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.03%	5.9%	2026-06-22 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.78I 35.97%NM 33.97%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.03%	5.9%	2026-06-22 15:49