Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vilius Gaubas v Dusan Lajovic

Kickoff: 2026-06-25 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

56%

44%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vilius Gaubas (Local)

Prediction 55.80%1.79fair odd

EV +7.15%

Edge +3.72%

Kelly +7.77%

Growth +0.555%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

49.34%56.20%55.28%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.491.711.731.9267.11%58.60%57.97%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dusan Lajovic (Visit)

Prediction 44.20%2.26fair odd

EV +10.49%

Edge +4.20%

Kelly +6.99%

Growth +0.733%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.50%43.80%44.72%50.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.872.122.042.5053.48%47.19%49.14%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vilius Gaubas (Local): 55.80%; Dusan Lajovic (Visit): 44.20%. For Dusan Lajovic (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -16.29%E -10.86%K -32.59%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +10.49%E +4.20%K +6.99%G +0.733%	6.7%	2026-06-25 11:30
NordicBet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.09%EV -16.85%E -11.31%K -34.39%G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98%NM 37.91%EV +7.84%E +3.21%K +5.44%G +0.426%	8.1%	2026-06-25 11:30
BoyleSports🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -14.62%E -9.55%K -27.58%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV +5.18%E +2.18%K +3.76%G +0.195%	7.4%	2026-06-25 11:30
Betway🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -7.92%E -4.80%K -12.19%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV +1.65%E +0.717%K +1.27%G +0.021%	4.1%	2026-06-25 11:30
Fliff🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -14.62%E -9.55%K -27.58%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV +1.65%E +0.717%K +1.27%G +0.021%	8.8%	2026-06-25 11:30
Paddy Power🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.60%E -5.92%K -15.48%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -2.77%E -1.26%K -2.31%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-06-25 11:30
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.13%E -3.02%K -7.33%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.40%E -4.59%K -8.95%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-06-25 11:28
Pinnacle🎯	1.84I 54.35%NM 52.33%EV +2.68%E +1.46%K +3.19%G +0.086%	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.67%EV -10.73%E -5.31%K -10.52%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-06-25 10:00
GTbets🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV +3.24%E +1.75%K +3.81%G +0.123%	1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -12.94%E -6.57%K -13.34%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-06-25 08:50
ReBet🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV +4.91%E +2.61%K +5.58%G +0.274%	1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -14.70%E -7.62%K -15.81%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-25 10:10
Marathon Bet🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV +1.56%E +0.860%K +1.91%G +0.030%	1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -14.70%E -7.62%K -15.81%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-06-25 10:20
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 51.21%EV +1.01%E +0.556%K +1.24%G +0.013%	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%EV -16.03%E -8.44%K -17.81%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-06-25 10:59
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 51.79%EV -2.34%E -1.34%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 48.21%EV -16.91%E -9.00%K -19.22%G +0.000%	10.3%	2026-06-25 08:40
PlayUp🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 49.34%EV +7.15%E +3.72%K +7.77%G +0.555%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -17.36%E -9.28%K -19.95%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-06-25 11:18

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63%	2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37%	0.8%	2026-06-25 11:30
Smarkets◎	1.65I 60.61%NM 59.85%	2.46I 40.65%NM 40.15%	1.3%	2026-06-25 11:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%	2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%	2.1%	2026-06-25 11:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.50%	2.12I 47.17%NM 45.50%	3.7%	2026-06-25 11:30
ProphetX◎	1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%	6.8%	2026-06-25 11:30