Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tristan Boyer v Andrea Pellegrino

Kickoff: 2026-06-24 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

96%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tristan Boyer (Local)

Prediction 95.59%1.05fair odd

EV -1.54%

Edge -1.50%

Kelly -51.39%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

93.69%95.62%95.59%98.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.011.011.03100.00%99.01%99.01%97.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Andrea Pellegrino (Visit)

Prediction 4.41%22.68fair odd

EV +195.43%

Edge +2.92%

Kelly +2.96%

Growth +5.79%

assuming max odds 67.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

1.47%4.38%4.41%6.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

15.0034.2131.0567.006.67%2.92%3.22%1.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tristan Boyer (Local): 95.59%; Andrea Pellegrino (Visit): 4.41%. For Andrea Pellegrino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 22.68. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 67.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +195.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Paddy Power🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 98.53%EV -4.41%E -4.41%K +0.000%G +0.000%	67.00I 1.49%NM 1.47%EV +195.43%E +2.92%K +2.96%G +5.79%	1.5%	2026-06-24 15:47
BoyleSports🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 97.62%EV -4.41%E -4.41%K +0.000%G +0.000%	41.00I 2.44%NM 2.38%EV +80.78%E +1.97%K +2.02%G +1.63%	2.4%	2026-06-24 15:46
Pinnacle🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 96.79%EV -1.54%E -1.50%K -51.39%G +0.000%	31.05I 3.22%NM 3.21%EV +36.91%E +1.19%K +1.23%G +0.453%	0.3%	2026-06-24 15:30
Betway🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -3.45%E -3.42%K -345.35%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -25.04%E -1.47%K -1.57%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-06-24 15:29
theScore Bet🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -3.45%E -3.42%K -345.35%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -33.86%E -2.26%K -2.42%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-06-24 15:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.