Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tom Gentzsch v Zdenek Kolar

Kickoff: 2026-06-22 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tom Gentzsch (Local)

Prediction 68.02%1.47fair odd
EV +3.40%
Edge +2.23%
Kelly +6.53%
Growth +0.222%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.19%67.95%69.98%73.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.381.341.5280.00%72.66%74.63%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zdenek Kolar (Visit)

Prediction 31.98%3.13fair odd
EV +11.92%
Edge +3.41%
Kelly +4.77%
Growth +0.568%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.32%32.05%30.02%37.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.943.013.5040.00%33.96%33.22%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tom Gentzsch (Local): 68.02%; Zdenek Kolar (Visit): 31.98%. For Zdenek Kolar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.13. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -14.97%E -11.98%K -59.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV +11.92%E +3.41%K +4.77%G +0.568%8.6%2026-06-22 16:50
Fliff🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -13.61%E -10.72%K -50.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV +5.52%E +1.67%K +2.40%G +0.133%9.0%2026-06-22 16:49
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -12.25%E -9.50%K -42.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV +3.92%E +1.21%K +1.74%G +0.068%8.3%2026-06-22 16:49
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -9.53%E -7.16%K -28.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -0.872%E -0.281%K -0.415%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-22 16:49
theScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -9.53%E -7.16%K -28.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -0.872%E -0.281%K -0.415%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-22 16:49
NordicBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.20%EV -8.85%E -6.60%K -26.03%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 30.80%EV -3.75%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-22 16:49
ReBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV +0.674%E +0.456%K +1.40%G +0.009%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -13.66%E -5.06%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-22 16:30
MyBookie.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -4.77%E -3.41%K -11.92%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -13.66%E -5.06%K -8.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-22 16:49
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.11%EV +2.03%E +1.36%K +4.07%G +0.083%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.89%EV -14.30%E -5.34%K -8.51%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-22 16:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -2.73%E -1.91%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -18.46%E -7.24%K -11.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-22 16:09
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV +3.40%E +2.23%K +6.53%G +0.222%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -20.06%E -8.02%K -13.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-22 16:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.50I 66.67%NM 65.75%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.25%1.4%2026-06-22 16:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 65.75%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.25%1.4%2026-06-22 16:50
Smarkets1.38I 72.46%NM 70.82%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.18%2.3%2026-06-22 16:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%5.6%2026-06-22 16:50