Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stefano Travaglia v Yi Zhou

Kickoff: 2026-06-24 10:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

52%

48%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stefano Travaglia (Local)

Prediction 51.96%1.92fair odd

EV -3.36%

Edge -1.81%

Kelly -3.91%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

51.18%51.98%52.00%52.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.731.811.801.8657.80%55.23%55.56%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yi Zhou (Visit)

Prediction 48.04%2.08fair odd

EV -1.99%

Edge -0.976%

Kelly -1.91%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.29%48.02%48.00%48.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.901.941.952.0452.63%51.46%51.28%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stefano Travaglia (Local): 51.96%; Yi Zhou (Visit): 48.04%. For Yi Zhou (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.04, with an expected value of -1.99%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -3.36%E -1.81%K -3.91%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -6.31%E -3.24%K -6.65%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-23 12:30
Betway🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.88%E -2.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.31%E -3.24%K -6.65%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-23 12:29
PlayUp🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.88%E -2.10%K -4.57%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.31%E -3.24%K -6.65%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-24 09:10
ReBet🎯	1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -4.40%E -2.39%K -5.24%G +0.000%	1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -4.87%E -2.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-06-24 09:30
Pinnacle🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -4.92%E -2.69%K -5.93%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 47.29%EV -1.99%E -0.976%K -1.91%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-06-24 09:30
NordicBet🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -5.44%E -2.99%K -6.63%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -6.31%E -3.24%K -6.65%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-06-24 09:30
Marathon Bet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.48%E -3.60%K -8.10%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.31%E -3.24%K -6.65%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-06-24 07:59
theScore Bet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.48%E -3.60%K -8.10%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.31%E -3.24%K -6.65%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-06-24 09:30
BoyleSports🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.48%E -3.60%K -8.10%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.24%E -4.31%K -9.05%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-06-24 09:30
Paddy Power🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.48%E -3.60%K -8.10%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.24%E -4.31%K -9.05%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-06-23 12:29
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.79I 55.87%NM 51.75%EV -7.00%E -3.91%K -8.86%G +0.000%	1.92I 52.08%NM 48.25%EV -7.76%E -4.04%K -8.43%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-06-24 09:29
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%EV -8.04%E -4.54%K -10.44%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%EV -8.72%E -4.59%K -9.68%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-06-24 09:29
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 52.34%EV -10.12%E -5.85%K -13.86%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 47.66%EV -8.72%E -4.59%K -9.68%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-06-24 09:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%	2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%	0.4%	2026-06-24 09:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%	2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%	0.4%	2026-06-24 09:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%	2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%	0.4%	2026-06-24 09:10
Smarkets◎	1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66%	2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34%	2.4%	2026-06-24 09:30