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Stefano Napolitano v Billy Harris
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Stefano Napolitano (Local)
assuming max odds 4.76
Billy Harris (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.26
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stefano Napolitano (Local): 21.70%; Billy Harris (Visit): 78.30%. For Stefano Napolitano (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.61. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.76, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.29%.
Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.27%EV +3.29%E +0.692%K +0.876%G +0.029% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.73%EV -5.26%E -4.34%K -25.03%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -2.35%E -0.522%K -0.671%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.39%E -7.17%K -49.35%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.47I 22.37%NM 20.74%EV -3.00%E -0.671%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.26%EV -8.39%E -7.17%K -49.35%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -4.52%E -1.03%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.61%E -6.45%K -42.26%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -5.60%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.80%EV -8.39%E -7.17%K -49.35%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -7.77%E -1.83%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.04%E -5.03%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -7.77%E -1.83%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.27%EV -7.61%E -6.45%K -42.26%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.86%E -2.11%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.04%E -5.03%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.19I 23.87%NM 23.12%EV -9.08%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.88%EV -1.34%E -1.07%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-06-22 09:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -11.03%E -2.69%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.65%EV -7.61%E -6.45%K -42.26%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-22 09:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -16.45%E -4.27%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -2.13%E -1.70%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-22 10:06 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.00% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.00% | 1.2% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.88% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.12% | 1.9% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.40% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.60% | 2.1% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17% | 4.4% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |