Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Roman Safiullin v Jerome Kym

Kickoff: 2026-06-25 10:13 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Roman Safiullin (Local)

Prediction 65.25%1.53fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.979%
Kelly -2.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.70%65.65%65.53%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.431.431.5173.53%70.05%69.93%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jerome Kym (Visit)

Prediction 34.75%2.88fair odd
EV +4.26%
Edge +1.42%
Kelly +2.13%
Growth +0.091%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.19%34.35%34.47%36.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.572.732.703.0038.91%36.62%37.04%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Roman Safiullin (Local): 65.25%; Jerome Kym (Visit): 34.75%. For Jerome Kym (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.88. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -11.26%E -8.28%K -31.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +4.26%E +1.42%K +2.13%G +0.091%6.9%2026-06-25 10:10
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -11.26%E -8.28%K -31.29%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV +0.090%E +0.031%K +0.048%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-25 10:10
Fliff🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -11.26%E -8.28%K -31.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -2.69%E -0.961%K -1.49%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-25 10:10
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.39%E -3.72%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.43%E -1.61%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-25 10:07
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.05%E -4.20%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.43%E -1.61%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-25 10:08
ReBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.09%E -2.78%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.17%E -2.28%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-25 09:59
theScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.35%E -5.18%K -17.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -6.17%E -2.28%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-25 10:10
GTbets🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.35%EV -2.78%E -1.87%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.65%EV -6.51%E -2.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-25 09:59
NordicBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.53%EV -8.00%E -5.68%K -19.52%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.47%EV -6.86%E -2.56%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-25 10:09
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -1.48%E -0.979%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -7.90%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-25 10:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -5.39%E -3.72%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -9.64%E -3.71%K -6.03%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-25 10:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.57%EV -8.00%E -5.68%K -19.52%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 35.43%EV -10.68%E -4.16%K -6.80%G +0.000%9.8%2026-06-25 10:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.67%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%0.7%2026-06-25 10:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.67%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%0.7%2026-06-25 10:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%1.2%2026-06-25 10:10
Smarkets1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41%1.2%2026-06-25 10:10
ProphetX1.42I 70.42%NM 68.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07%2.2%2026-06-25 10:10