Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Roman Safiullin v James McCabe

Kickoff: 2026-06-22 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

65%

35%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Roman Safiullin (Local)

Prediction 65.21%1.53fair odd

EV -2.18%

Edge -1.45%

Kelly -4.36%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

61.54%65.53%65.21%70.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.331.411.391.5075.19%70.74%71.94%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

James McCabe (Visit)

Prediction 34.79%2.87fair odd

EV +12.02%

Edge +3.73%

Kelly +5.41%

Growth +0.650%

assuming max odds 3.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.85%34.47%34.79%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.402.772.853.2241.67%36.10%35.09%31.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Roman Safiullin (Local): 65.21%; James McCabe (Visit): 34.79%. For James McCabe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.87. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 70.15%EV -10.66%E -7.78%K -28.81%G +0.000%	3.22I 31.06%NM 29.85%EV +12.02%E +3.73%K +5.41%G +0.650%	4.0%	2026-06-22 10:10
Paddy Power🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -13.27%E -9.98%K -40.21%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV +4.36%E +1.45%K +2.18%G +0.095%	8.5%	2026-06-22 10:15
NordicBet🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -11.96%E -8.86%K -34.18%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV +2.62%E +0.889%K +1.35%G +0.035%	8.0%	2026-06-22 10:12
BoyleSports🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -11.31%E -8.32%K -31.42%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV +0.189%E +0.066%K +0.100%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-06-22 10:29
GTbets🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 67.37%EV -9.35%E -6.73%K -23.99%G +0.000%	2.87I 34.84%NM 32.63%EV -0.159%E -0.055%K -0.085%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-06-22 09:57
PlayUp🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -7.40%E -5.21%K -17.62%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -0.855%E -0.300%K -0.462%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-06-22 10:09
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -10.01%E -7.25%K -26.33%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -2.59%E -0.927%K -1.44%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-06-22 09:59
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.18%E -1.45%K -4.36%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -13.03%E -5.21%K -8.69%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-06-22 10:15
theScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.18%E -1.45%K -4.36%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -13.03%E -5.21%K -8.69%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-06-22 10:12
Fliff🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -5.44%E -3.75%K -12.09%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -13.03%E -5.21%K -8.69%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-06-22 10:12
Betway🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -2.18%E -1.45%K -4.36%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -16.51%E -6.88%K -11.79%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-06-22 10:11

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.34I 74.63%NM 73.67%	3.75I 26.67%NM 26.33%	1.3%	2026-06-22 10:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.34I 74.63%NM 73.67%	3.75I 26.67%NM 26.33%	1.3%	2026-06-22 10:30
Smarkets◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 88.17%	7.60I 13.16%NM 11.83%	11.2%	2026-06-22 10:29
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.33I 75.19%NM 65.98%	2.58I 38.76%NM 34.02%	13.9%	2026-06-22 10:29