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Raul Brancaccio v Arthur Gea
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Raul Brancaccio (Local)
assuming max odds 4.12
Arthur Gea (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.29
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Raul Brancaccio (Local): 24.86%; Arthur Gea (Visit): 75.14%. For Raul Brancaccio (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.43%.
Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.12I 24.27%NM 23.28%EV +2.43%E +0.589%K +0.778%G +0.019% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.72%EV -6.08%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-22 11:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.557%E -0.139%K -0.186%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.08%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-22 11:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.51%EV -5.03%E -1.32%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.49%EV -6.83%E -5.51%K -28.45%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-22 11:42 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -5.53%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -8.33%E -6.83%K -37.86%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-22 11:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.67I 27.25%NM 25.56%EV -8.76%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.44%EV -5.32%E -4.23%K -20.48%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-22 11:03 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -9.26%E -2.54%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.80%EV -7.58%E -6.16%K -32.95%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-22 11:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.08%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-22 09:49 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.08%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-22 07:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.08%E -4.86%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-22 04:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -15.47%E -4.55%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -3.07%E -2.38%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-22 11:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -19.20%E -5.91%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -3.07%E -2.38%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-22 11:50 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-06-22 11:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-06-22 11:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.78% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.22% | 2.1% | 2026-06-22 11:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55% | 7.6% | 2026-06-22 11:49 |