Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Otto Virtanen v Pedro Martinez

Kickoff: 2026-06-22 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

88%

12%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Otto Virtanen (Local)

Prediction 87.57%1.14fair odd

EV +5.08%

Edge +4.24%

Kelly +25.42%

Growth +1.29%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

80.30%86.29%87.57%89.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.031.091.081.2097.09%91.53%93.02%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pedro Martinez (Visit)

Prediction 12.43%8.05fair odd

EV +11.87%

Edge +1.32%

Kelly +1.48%

Growth +0.176%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

10.27%13.71%12.43%19.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.896.867.109.0020.45%14.58%14.08%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Otto Virtanen (Local): 87.57%; Pedro Martinez (Visit): 12.43%. For Pedro Martinez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.05. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.87%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.30%EV +5.08%E +4.24%K +25.42%G +1.29%	4.89I 20.45%NM 19.70%EV -39.22%E -8.02%K -10.08%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-06-22 13:40
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV +0.706%E +0.614%K +4.71%G +0.033%	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -39.09%E -7.98%K -10.02%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-06-22 13:50
BoyleSports🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.42%E -5.02%K -67.80%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -0.562%E -0.070%K -0.080%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-22 13:49
theScore Bet🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV -5.42%E -5.02%K -67.80%G +0.000%	7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -9.88%E -1.36%K -1.58%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-06-22 13:49
Paddy Power🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -6.30%E -5.89%K -90.00%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -12.99%E -1.86%K -2.17%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-06-22 13:49
NordicBet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 86.10%EV -6.30%E -5.89%K -90.00%G +0.000%	6.63I 15.08%NM 13.90%EV -17.59%E -2.65%K -3.12%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-06-22 13:49
Fliff🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 87.17%EV -7.18%E -6.77%K -119.59%G +0.000%	7.20I 13.89%NM 12.83%EV -10.51%E -1.46%K -1.69%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-06-22 13:49
Betway🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -9.80%E -9.52%K -326.75%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV +11.87%E +1.32%K +1.48%G +0.176%	8.2%	2026-06-22 13:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.10I 90.91%NM 90.52%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.48%	0.4%	2026-06-22 13:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%	5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%	0.9%	2026-06-22 13:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43%	6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%	0.9%	2026-06-22 13:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43%	6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%	0.9%	2026-06-22 13:49