Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 4.55
assuming max odds 1.22
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oliver Crawford (Local): 21.15%; Jurij Rodionov (Visit): 78.85%. For Oliver Crawford (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.55, with an expected value of -3.79%; they did not produce positive expected value.
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.14%EV -3.79%E -0.833%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.86%EV -3.80%E -3.11%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-22 15:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.85%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.74%E -6.62%K -45.53%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-22 15:38 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -4.85%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.65%EV -9.32%E -8.10%K -62.11%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-06-22 15:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -6.96%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -6.95%E -5.89%K -38.62%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-22 15:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -9.07%E -2.11%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.61%EV -7.74%E -6.62%K -45.53%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-22 15:49 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -10.13%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -5.37%E -4.48%K -26.87%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-22 15:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.24I 23.58%NM 21.77%EV -10.34%E -2.44%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.23%EV -6.95%E -5.89%K -38.62%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-22 15:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -11.19%E -2.66%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.37%E -4.48%K -26.87%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-22 15:49 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-22 15:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-22 15:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-22 15:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.91% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.09% | 1.5% | 2026-06-22 15:50 |