Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nikoloz Basilashvili v Elias Ymer

Kickoff: 2026-06-22 12:41 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

61%

39%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nikoloz Basilashvili (Local)

Prediction 60.66%1.65fair odd

EV -2.33%

Edge -1.45%

Kelly -3.82%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

59.64%61.58%59.75%66.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.391.501.531.6171.94%66.55%65.36%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elias Ymer (Visit)

Prediction 39.34%2.54fair odd

EV +8.57%

Edge +3.10%

Kelly +4.87%

Growth +0.417%

assuming max odds 2.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.49%38.42%40.25%40.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.302.482.402.7643.48%40.38%41.67%36.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nikoloz Basilashvili (Local): 60.66%; Elias Ymer (Visit): 39.34%. For Elias Ymer (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.76, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
NordicBet🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 66.51%EV -15.68%E -11.28%K -40.20%G +0.000%	2.76I 36.23%NM 33.49%EV +8.57%E +3.10%K +4.87%G +0.417%	8.2%	2026-06-22 12:39
BoyleSports🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -15.07%E -10.77%K -37.68%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV +8.18%E +2.97%K +4.67%G +0.382%	7.8%	2026-06-22 12:40
Paddy Power🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -12.64%E -8.78%K -28.74%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV +3.06%E +1.17%K +1.89%G +0.058%	7.6%	2026-06-22 12:39
theScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -9.00%E -6.00%K -18.01%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -1.66%E -0.663%K -1.11%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-06-22 12:39
Fliff🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -12.64%E -8.78%K -28.74%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -1.66%E -0.663%K -1.11%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-06-22 12:39
PlayUp🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.97%E -3.85%K -10.86%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-06-22 12:36
Pinnacle🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.75%EV -2.33%E -1.45%K -3.82%G +0.000%	2.39I 41.84%NM 40.25%EV -5.99%E -2.50%K -4.31%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-06-22 12:40
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.97%E -3.85%K -10.86%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.56%E -3.22%K -5.60%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-06-22 12:29
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.18%E -4.70%K -13.56%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -7.56%E -3.22%K -5.60%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-06-22 12:09
Marathon Bet🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -4.76%E -3.03%K -8.35%G +0.000%	2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -8.74%E -3.77%K -6.62%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-06-22 12:28
Betway🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.97%E -3.85%K -10.86%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.53%E -4.14%K -7.33%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-06-22 12:37

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57%	3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%	0.5%	2026-06-22 12:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.55I 64.52%NM 63.18%	2.66I 37.59%NM 36.82%	2.1%	2026-06-22 12:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.39I 71.94%NM 65.85%	2.68I 37.31%NM 34.15%	9.3%	2026-06-22 12:40
Smarkets◎	1.44I 69.44%NM 63.08%	2.46I 40.65%NM 36.92%	10.1%	2026-06-22 12:40