Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo v Soonwoo Kwon

Kickoff: 2026-06-22 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo (Local)

Prediction 18.39%5.44fair odd
EV +1.15%
Edge +0.208%
Kelly +0.255%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.92%18.51%18.39%20.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.005.005.5022.22%20.00%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Soonwoo Kwon (Visit)

Prediction 81.61%1.23fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -2.42%
Kelly -15.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.65%81.49%81.61%83.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.151.141.1989.29%87.24%87.72%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo (Local): 18.39%; Soonwoo Kwon (Visit): 81.61%. For Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.44. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +1.15%E +0.208%K +0.255%G +0.003%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -8.60%E -7.68%K -71.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-22 11:49
theScore Bet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -4.37%E -0.841%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -6.96%E -6.11%K -49.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-22 11:49
Pinnacle🎯5.14I 19.46%NM 18.80%EV -5.47%E -1.07%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 81.20%EV -2.88%E -2.42%K -15.18%G +0.000%3.5%2026-06-22 11:50
MyBookie.ag🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -8.05%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.15%E -5.35%K -40.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-22 11:48
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -8.05%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.96%E -6.11%K -49.75%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-22 11:50
Fliff🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.03%EV -10.81%E -2.23%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 80.97%EV -6.96%E -6.11%K -49.75%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-22 11:49
NordicBet🎯4.82I 20.75%NM 19.13%EV -11.36%E -2.36%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 80.87%EV -6.96%E -6.11%K -49.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-22 11:49
Betway🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -17.24%E -3.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 79.65%EV -6.15%E -5.35%K -40.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-22 11:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.29%0.8%2026-06-22 11:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%0.9%2026-06-22 11:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%0.9%2026-06-22 11:49
Smarkets5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%4.0%2026-06-22 11:49