Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lukas Neumayer v Dusan Lajovic

Kickoff: 2026-06-22 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

50%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lukas Neumayer (Local)

Prediction 50.21%1.99fair odd

EV +2.92%

Edge +1.43%

Kelly +2.78%

Growth +0.081%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

45.33%49.70%50.21%53.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.781.901.912.0556.18%52.60%52.36%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dusan Lajovic (Visit)

Prediction 49.79%2.01fair odd

EV +0.085%

Edge +0.042%

Kelly +0.084%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.97%50.30%49.79%54.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.701.831.812.0158.82%54.76%55.10%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lukas Neumayer (Local): 50.21%; Dusan Lajovic (Visit): 49.79%. For Lukas Neumayer (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.99. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Betway🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV +2.92%E +1.43%K +2.78%G +0.081%	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -15.35%E -9.03%K -21.93%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-06-22 15:49
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV +0.413%E +0.206%K +0.413%G +0.002%	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -12.86%E -7.35%K -17.15%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-06-22 15:49
NordicBet🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -3.10%E -1.61%K -3.33%G +0.000%	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -11.37%E -6.39%K -14.57%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-06-22 15:49
theScore Bet🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.11%E -2.15%K -4.51%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.88%E -4.85%K -10.70%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-06-22 15:49
Paddy Power🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -4.11%E -2.15%K -4.51%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -10.37%E -5.76%K -12.96%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-06-22 15:50
Fliff🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -8.12%E -4.44%K -9.79%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -8.88%E -4.85%K -10.70%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-06-22 15:49
BoyleSports🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -9.63%E -5.35%K -12.04%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -4.89%E -2.56%K -5.38%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-06-22 15:49
Pinnacle🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.03%EV -10.63%E -5.97%K -13.63%G +0.000%	2.01I 49.75%NM 46.97%EV +0.085%E +0.042%K +0.084%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-06-22 15:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.96I 51.02%NM 50.13%	1.97I 50.76%NM 49.87%	1.8%	2026-06-22 15:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.96I 51.02%NM 50.13%	1.97I 50.76%NM 49.87%	1.8%	2026-06-22 15:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.93I 51.81%NM 50.13%	1.94I 51.55%NM 49.87%	3.4%	2026-06-22 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.93I 51.81%NM 50.13%	1.94I 51.55%NM 49.87%	3.4%	2026-06-22 15:49