The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Luca Nardi v Otto Virtanen

Kickoff: 2026-06-24 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luca Nardi (Local)

Prediction 9.50%10.53fair odd
EV +536.26%
Edge +8.00%
Kelly +8.13%
Growth +43.57%

assuming max odds 67.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.47%8.85%9.50%20.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.5020.178.5067.0022.22%4.96%11.76%1.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Otto Virtanen (Visit)

Prediction 90.50%1.10fair odd
EV +4.98%
Edge +4.30%
Kelly +31.15%
Growth +1.55%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.51%91.15%90.50%98.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.061.041.16100.00%94.34%96.15%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luca Nardi (Local): 9.50%; Otto Virtanen (Visit): 90.50%. For Luca Nardi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.53. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 67.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +536.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯67.00I 1.49%NM 1.47%EV +536.26%E +8.00%K +8.13%G +43.57%1.00I 100.00%NM 98.53%EV -9.50%E -9.50%K +0.000%G +0.000%1.5%2026-06-24 15:46
BoyleSports🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +222.88%E +6.56%K +6.75%G +15.05%1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -9.50%E -9.50%K +0.000%G +0.000%2.9%2026-06-24 15:44
Betway🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV +13.96%E +1.16%K +1.27%G +0.177%1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -6.78%E -6.58%K -226.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-24 15:41
theScore Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -19.28%E -2.27%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.07%E -3.84%K -67.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-24 15:41
Fliff🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -24.03%E -3.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 88.50%EV -5.88%E -5.65%K -146.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-24 15:41
Pinnacle🎯7.20I 13.89%NM 13.57%EV -31.63%E -4.39%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 86.43%EV +2.27%E +2.01%K +17.45%G +0.396%2.4%2026-06-24 15:30
NordicBet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -57.27%E -12.73%K -16.36%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV +4.98%E +4.30%K +31.15%G +1.55%8.4%2026-06-24 15:46
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02%1.0%2026-06-24 15:48
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02%1.0%2026-06-24 15:46
Smarkets◎50.00I 2.00%NM 1.96%1.00I 100.00%NM 98.04%2.0%2026-06-24 15:46