Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Liam Broady v August Holmgren

Kickoff: 2026-06-22 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

48%

52%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Liam Broady (Local)

Prediction 48.49%2.06fair odd

EV -0.597%

Edge -0.291%

Kelly -0.568%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

45.48%48.11%48.52%49.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.911.971.952.0552.36%50.64%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

August Holmgren (Visit)

Prediction 51.51%1.94fair odd

EV -1.61%

Edge -0.845%

Kelly -1.77%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

50.39%51.89%51.48%54.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.711.781.771.9158.48%56.21%56.50%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Liam Broady (Local): 48.49%; August Holmgren (Visit): 51.51%. For Liam Broady (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.06. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.05, with an expected value of -0.597%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
PlayUp🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -0.597%E -0.291%K -0.568%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -8.83%E -4.99%K -11.46%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-22 12:49
NordicBet🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -0.597%E -0.291%K -0.568%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -10.37%E -5.96%K -14.02%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-22 13:49
theScore Bet🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -0.597%E -0.291%K -0.568%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -11.92%E -6.97%K -16.78%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-06-22 13:49
Paddy Power🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -3.02%E -1.51%K -3.02%G +0.000%	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -10.89%E -6.29%K -14.91%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-06-22 08:00
Betway🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.45%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.71%E -2.54%K -5.54%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-22 12:49
Fliff🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -5.45%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -11.92%E -6.97%K -16.78%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-06-22 13:49
Pinnacle🎯	1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -5.93%E -3.06%K -6.31%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -1.61%E -0.845%K -1.77%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-06-22 12:50
Marathon Bet🎯	1.94I 51.55%NM 48.27%EV -5.93%E -3.06%K -6.31%G +0.000%	1.81I 55.25%NM 51.73%EV -6.77%E -3.74%K -8.35%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-06-22 12:50
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -5.93%E -3.06%K -6.31%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -8.83%E -4.99%K -11.46%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-06-22 12:50
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -5.93%E -3.06%K -6.31%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -8.83%E -4.99%K -11.46%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-06-22 12:49
BoyleSports🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.39%E -3.87%K -8.12%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.28%E -4.05%K -9.10%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-06-22 12:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24%	1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76%	0.6%	2026-06-22 13:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.06I 48.54%NM 48.11%	1.91I 52.36%NM 51.89%	0.9%	2026-06-22 13:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98%	1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02%	1.2%	2026-06-22 13:39
Smarkets◎	2.04I 49.02%NM 48.35%	1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65%	1.4%	2026-06-22 13:49