Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Johannus Monday v Tristan Schoolkate

Kickoff: 2026-06-22 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

41%

59%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Johannus Monday (Local)

Prediction 40.69%2.46fair odd

EV +3.75%

Edge +1.47%

Kelly +2.42%

Growth +0.091%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.04%41.23%40.56%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.962.292.332.5551.02%43.72%42.92%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tristan Schoolkate (Visit)

Prediction 59.31%1.69fair odd

EV +4.98%

Edge +2.82%

Kelly +6.47%

Growth +0.323%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.83%58.77%59.44%62.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.491.591.561.7767.11%62.93%64.10%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Johannus Monday (Local): 40.69%; Tristan Schoolkate (Visit): 59.31%. For Tristan Schoolkate (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.69. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.98%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -18.63%E -9.31%K -18.63%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV +4.98%E +2.82%K +6.47%G +0.323%	6.5%	2026-06-22 11:49
NordicBet🎯	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%EV -20.25%E -10.33%K -21.10%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%EV +3.80%E +2.17%K +5.06%G +0.192%	8.2%	2026-06-22 11:49
Paddy Power🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -14.56%E -6.93%K -13.23%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -0.947%E -0.567%K -1.41%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-06-22 11:50
Betway🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -14.56%E -6.93%K -13.23%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -2.13%E -1.29%K -3.28%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-06-22 11:49
Pinnacle🎯	2.33I 42.92%NM 40.56%EV -5.20%E -2.23%K -3.91%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.44%EV -5.69%E -3.58%K -9.65%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-22 11:50
Fliff🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -10.49%E -4.77%K -8.74%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -7.47%E -4.79%K -13.34%G +0.000%	9.6%	2026-06-22 11:49
PlayUp🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +3.75%E +1.47%K +2.42%G +0.091%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -11.03%E -7.35%K -22.06%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-06-21 20:00
BoyleSports🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +1.72%E +0.687%K +1.15%G +0.020%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -11.03%E -7.35%K -22.06%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-06-22 11:49
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -0.317%E -0.129%K -0.218%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -11.03%E -7.35%K -22.06%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-06-22 09:19
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -0.317%E -0.129%K -0.218%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -11.03%E -7.35%K -22.06%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-06-22 11:48
Marathon Bet🎯	2.52I 39.68%NM 37.16%EV +2.53%E +1.00%K +1.67%G +0.042%	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.84%EV -11.62%E -7.80%K -23.72%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-06-22 11:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%	1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%	0.9%	2026-06-22 11:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%	1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%	0.9%	2026-06-22 11:49
Smarkets◎	2.48I 40.32%NM 39.81%	1.64I 60.98%NM 60.19%	1.3%	2026-06-22 11:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%	1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%	2.0%	2026-06-22 11:50