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Hugo Gaston v Lautaro Midon
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hugo Gaston (Local)
assuming max odds 1.28
Lautaro Midon (Visit)
assuming max odds 4.50
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hugo Gaston (Local): 77.22%; Lautaro Midon (Visit): 22.78%. For Lautaro Midon (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.39. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.53%.
Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.34%E -6.12%K -36.70%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +2.53%E +0.562%K +0.722%G +0.018% | 5.6% | 2026-06-22 10:07 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.58%EV -4.25%E -3.43%K -17.72%G +0.000% | 4.29I 23.31%NM 22.42%EV -2.26%E -0.526%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -7.34%E -6.12%K -36.70%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -3.17%E -0.746%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.51%EV -1.16%E -0.909%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.49%EV -4.99%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-06-22 09:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.50%EV -8.11%E -6.82%K -42.70%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%EV -6.59%E -1.61%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.34%E -6.12%K -36.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.86%E -2.22%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -5.80%E -4.75%K -26.35%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -10.00%E -2.53%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.15%EV -9.66%E -8.25%K -56.81%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.85%EV -10.00%E -2.53%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-06-22 10:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.48%E -2.78%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -14.56%E -3.88%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.80%E -4.75%K -26.35%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -14.56%E -3.88%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.69%EV -1.94%E -1.52%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.31%EV -22.99%E -6.80%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.78% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.22% | 2.5% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81% | 6.1% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22% | 7.1% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00% | 94.2% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |