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Hugo Gaston v Federico Cinà
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hugo Gaston (Local)
assuming max odds 2.40
Federico Cinà (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.79
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hugo Gaston (Local): 43.84%; Federico Cinà (Visit): 56.16%. For Hugo Gaston (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.22%.
Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV +5.22%E +2.17%K +3.73%G +0.194% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -10.15%E -6.34%K -16.91%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-24 13:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -1.36%E -0.604%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -9.02%E -5.57%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-24 13:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -1.36%E -0.604%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -11.83%E -7.53%K -20.75%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-24 13:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.58%EV -2.67%E -1.20%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.42%EV -11.27%E -7.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-24 13:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.02%E -5.57%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-24 13:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.51%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.49%EV -10.71%E -6.73%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-24 13:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -7.50%E -3.55%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -2.28%E -1.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-24 13:39 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.93%E -3.78%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.53%E -2.66%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-24 13:48 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 46.13%EV -8.37%E -4.01%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.87%EV +0.525%E +0.293%K +0.665%G +0.003% | 3.7% | 2026-06-24 13:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -10.13%E -4.94%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -1.72%E -0.984%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-24 13:47 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -10.56%E -5.18%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -2.84%E -1.64%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-24 13:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -12.32%E -6.16%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.35%EV -5.65%E -3.36%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-06-24 13:38 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -12.32%E -6.16%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-06-24 13:40 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 0.7% | 2026-06-24 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 0.7% | 2026-06-24 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82% | 1.2% | 2026-06-24 13:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15% | 2.0% | 2026-06-24 13:50 |