The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Henrique Rocha v Nicolas Mejia

Kickoff: 2026-06-22 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Henrique Rocha (Local)

Prediction 34.31%2.91fair odd
EV +2.92%
Edge +0.973%
Kelly +1.46%
Growth +0.043%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.72%36.40%34.31%45.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.062.652.703.0048.54%37.70%37.04%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nicolas Mejia (Visit)

Prediction 65.69%1.52fair odd
EV +14.31%
Edge +8.22%
Kelly +19.33%
Growth +2.77%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.21%63.60%65.69%69.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.441.401.7475.19%69.50%71.17%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Henrique Rocha (Local): 34.31%; Nicolas Mejia (Visit): 65.69%. For Nicolas Mejia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.52. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.74, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -29.33%E -14.24%K -27.67%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV +14.31%E +8.22%K +19.33%G +2.77%6.0%2026-06-22 15:40
MyBookie.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -15.95%E -6.51%K -11.00%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.82%EV -4.74%E -3.27%K -10.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-06-22 15:49
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.71%E -4.73%K -15.99%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-22 15:49
Fliff🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.16%EV -10.80%E -4.16%K -6.75%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.84%EV -7.37%E -5.23%K -17.98%G +0.000%9.4%2026-06-22 15:49
NordicBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.06%EV -7.03%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.94%EV -8.03%E -5.73%K -20.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-22 15:49
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.03%E -5.73%K -20.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-22 15:49
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +2.92%E +0.973%K +1.46%G +0.043%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -10.66%E -7.84%K -29.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-22 15:49
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV +2.92%E +0.973%K +1.46%G +0.043%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -12.63%E -9.49%K -38.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-22 15:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%0.7%2026-06-22 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22%1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78%1.8%2026-06-22 15:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.31%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.69%2.0%2026-06-22 15:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 35.78%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.22%6.7%2026-06-22 15:50