Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.11
assuming max odds 1.47
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Henri Squire (Local): 32.78%; Michael Zheng (Visit): 67.22%. For Henri Squire (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.05. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.11, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.94%.
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.11I 32.15%NM 29.80%EV +1.94%E +0.624%K +0.919%G +0.018% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.20%EV -11.27%E -8.54%K -35.21%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV +1.61%E +0.520%K +0.768%G +0.012% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -10.59%E -7.97%K -32.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -0.027%E -0.009%K -0.013%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.79%EV -11.27%E -8.54%K -35.21%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -1.67%E -0.555%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.58%E -6.31%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.99I 33.44%NM 32.20%EV -1.99%E -0.667%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.80%EV -4.54%E -3.20%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -5.60%E -1.94%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.58%E -6.31%K -23.83%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.87%EV -5.93%E -2.07%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.13%EV -1.18%E -0.805%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-06-22 09:59 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -6.58%E -2.31%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.89%E -4.21%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -9.86%E -3.59%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -4.54%E -3.20%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-22 10:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.86%E -3.59%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.89%E -4.21%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-22 09:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.86%E -3.59%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.89%E -4.21%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -11.50%E -4.26%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -2.53%E -1.74%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-22 10:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.99%EV -11.50%E -4.26%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.01%EV -6.56%E -4.72%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-22 10:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.93% | 2.2% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.89% | 2.2% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08% | 2.7% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.28% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.72% | 3.2% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |