Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.00
assuming max odds 1.43
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Federico Agustin Gomez (Local): 32.29%; Clement Tabur (Visit): 67.71%. For Federico Agustin Gomez (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -3.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.13%E -1.04%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.92%E -5.82%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.13%E -1.04%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.92%E -5.82%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -4.74%E -1.61%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.76%EV -9.27%E -6.92%K -27.27%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72%EV -5.06%E -1.72%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.28%EV -3.18%E -2.22%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.00%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-22 09:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -7.00%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.92%E -5.82%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -7.00%E -2.43%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.92%E -5.82%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.97%E -2.80%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-22 10:07 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.18%EV -8.94%E -3.17%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.82%EV -5.21%E -3.72%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-22 10:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -11.20%E -4.07%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.21%E -3.72%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -11.20%E -4.07%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.43%EV -5.89%E -4.23%K -15.09%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-22 09:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.33%EV -12.81%E -4.75%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.67%EV -8.59%E -6.37%K -24.55%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-06-22 10:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.47%EV -13.46%E -5.02%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.53%EV -4.53%E -3.21%K -11.05%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 1.2% | 2026-06-22 10:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08% | 2.7% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.55% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.45% | 7.4% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.07% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.93% | 9.0% | 2026-06-22 10:10 |