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Facundo Diaz Acosta v Alexis Galarneau
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Facundo Diaz Acosta (Local)
assuming max odds 3.60
Alexis Galarneau (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.40
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Facundo Diaz Acosta (Local): 28.44%; Alexis Galarneau (Visit): 71.56%. For Facundo Diaz Acosta (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.39%.
Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +2.39%E +0.665%K +0.920%G +0.022% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -6.26%E -4.78%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-22 13:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.89%EV -1.02%E -0.293%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.11%EV -8.41%E -6.57%K -30.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-22 13:47 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -1.87%E -0.543%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.98%E -5.37%K -23.25%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-22 13:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.72%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.83%E -3.63%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-22 13:47 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -7.56%E -2.33%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -7.69%E -5.96%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-22 10:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -7.56%E -2.33%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -7.69%E -5.96%K -26.52%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-22 13:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.98%E -2.81%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.98%E -5.37%K -23.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-22 13:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -11.83%E -3.82%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -4.83%E -3.63%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-22 13:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -11.83%E -3.82%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.29%EV -6.26%E -4.78%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-22 13:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 30.07%EV -12.68%E -4.13%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.93%EV -5.54%E -4.20%K -17.33%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-22 13:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -18.09%E -6.28%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV +0.181%E +0.129%K +0.451%G +0.001% | 6.2% | 2026-06-22 13:49 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.55% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.45% | 2.2% | 2026-06-22 13:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.13% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.87% | 2.4% | 2026-06-22 13:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03% | 3.6% | 2026-06-22 13:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51% | 6.6% | 2026-06-22 13:49 |