Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dane Sweeny v Darwin Blanch

Kickoff: 2026-06-24 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dane Sweeny (Local)

Prediction 40.88%2.45fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.614%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.00%41.04%40.88%42.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.282.252.4145.45%43.86%44.44%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Darwin Blanch (Visit)

Prediction 59.12%1.69fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -3.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.14%58.96%59.12%60.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.611.611.6563.29%62.07%62.11%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dane Sweeny (Local): 40.88%; Darwin Blanch (Visit): 59.12%. For Dane Sweeny (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.41, with an expected value of -1.48%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.05%EV -1.48%E -0.614%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.95%EV -4.82%E -2.99%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.6%2026-06-24 11:50
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -1.89%E -0.787%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.41%E -3.38%K -9.01%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-24 11:20
ReBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -5.16%E -2.22%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.23%E -2.61%K -6.81%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-24 10:39
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.00%E -3.77%K -10.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-23 12:30
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.82%E -2.99%K -7.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-24 09:30
MyBookie.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.36%EV -8.43%E -3.76%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.64%EV -6.59%E -4.17%K -11.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-24 09:29
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -10.06%E -4.57%K -8.39%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -2.45%E -1.49%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-24 02:29
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -10.06%E -4.57%K -8.39%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -4.23%E -2.61%K -6.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-24 09:30
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -10.06%E -4.57%K -8.39%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -4.23%E -2.61%K -6.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-23 12:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%1.0%2026-06-24 11:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%1.0%2026-06-24 11:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%1.0%2026-06-24 11:50
Smarkets2.46I 40.65%NM 39.56%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.44%2.8%2026-06-24 11:50