Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Clement Tabur v Shintaro Mochizuki

Kickoff: 2026-06-25 10:12 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Clement Tabur (Local)

Prediction 49.39%2.02fair odd
EV +7.17%
Edge +3.30%
Kelly +6.12%
Growth +0.439%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.16%49.40%48.86%53.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.941.942.1757.14%51.64%51.68%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shintaro Mochizuki (Visit)

Prediction 50.61%1.98fair odd
EV +3.76%
Edge +1.83%
Kelly +3.58%
Growth +0.135%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.67%50.60%51.14%55.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.831.802.0558.82%54.77%55.56%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Clement Tabur (Local): 49.39%; Shintaro Mochizuki (Visit): 50.61%. For Clement Tabur (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.02. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.17, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.64%EV +7.17%E +3.30%K +6.12%G +0.439%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.36%EV -11.42%E -6.53%K -15.23%G +0.000%3.2%2026-06-25 09:59
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV +6.18%E +2.87%K +5.37%G +0.332%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -13.95%E -8.21%K -19.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-25 10:07
Pinnacle🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.65%EV +2.23%E +1.08%K +2.08%G +0.046%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.35%EV -8.39%E -4.63%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.6%2026-06-25 10:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.50%EV +1.73%E +0.842%K +1.64%G +0.028%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%EV -12.94%E -7.52%K -17.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-25 09:59
ReBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV +0.746%E +0.366%K +0.717%G +0.005%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -9.40%E -5.25%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-25 09:59
MyBookie.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -1.23%E -0.615%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -11.42%E -6.53%K -15.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-25 10:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -3.70%E -1.90%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -13.95%E -8.21%K -19.94%G +0.000%10.1%2026-06-25 10:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.96%EV -5.18%E -2.70%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -13.95%E -8.21%K -19.94%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-25 09:58
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -9.62%E -5.26%K -11.60%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -3.33%E -1.74%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-25 10:10
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -11.11%E -6.17%K -13.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV +3.76%E +1.83%K +3.58%G +0.135%4.3%2026-06-25 10:10
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -11.11%E -6.17%K -13.88%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -3.33%E -1.74%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-25 10:10
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -11.11%E -6.17%K -13.88%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -3.83%E -2.02%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-25 10:09
Fliff🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%EV -12.59%E -7.11%K -16.35%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.63%EV -5.35%E -2.86%K -6.15%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-25 10:10
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -13.58%E -7.76%K -18.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV +1.23%E +0.615%K +1.23%G +0.015%7.1%2026-06-25 10:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12%0.8%2026-06-25 10:10
Smarkets1.95I 51.28%NM 50.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.37%1.3%2026-06-25 10:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 50.00%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.00%3.1%2026-06-25 10:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.96I 51.02%NM 49.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.52%3.1%2026-06-25 10:10
ProphetX1.99I 50.25%NM 48.58%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.42%3.4%2026-06-25 10:10