Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bu Yunchaokete v Hugo Dellien

Kickoff: 2026-06-22 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bu Yunchaokete (Local)

Prediction 90.42%1.11fair odd
EV +0.364%
Edge +0.328%
Kelly +3.31%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.90%90.52%90.37%92.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.041.041.1198.04%95.73%96.15%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hugo Dellien (Visit)

Prediction 9.58%10.44fair odd
EV +18.24%
Edge +1.48%
Kelly +1.61%
Growth +0.293%

assuming max odds 12.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.77%9.48%9.63%11.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.259.629.5012.3412.12%10.40%10.53%8.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bu Yunchaokete (Local): 90.42%; Hugo Dellien (Visit): 9.58%. For Hugo Dellien (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.44. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.34, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.24%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.23%EV -5.97%E -5.74%K -149.13%G +0.000%12.34I 8.10%NM 7.77%EV +18.24%E +1.48%K +1.61%G +0.293%4.3%2026-06-22 10:10
BoyleSports🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.16%E -3.92%K -69.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +5.40%E +0.491%K +0.540%G +0.029%3.4%2026-06-22 10:09
theScore Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.97%E -5.74%K -149.13%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV +0.609%E +0.058%K +0.064%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-22 10:09
PlayUp🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.16%E -3.92%K -69.28%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -4.18%E -0.418%K -0.465%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-22 10:09
Fliff🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 90.35%EV -7.77%E -7.62%K -388.67%G +0.000%9.55I 10.47%NM 9.65%EV -8.49%E -0.889%K -0.993%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-22 10:09
GTbets🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 89.58%EV +0.364%E +0.328%K +3.31%G +0.012%9.54I 10.48%NM 10.42%EV -8.59%E -0.900%K -1.01%G +0.000%0.6%2026-06-22 09:59
Paddy Power🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.97%E -5.74%K -149.13%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -8.97%E -0.945%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-22 10:09
MyBookie.ag🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.89%EV -5.97%E -5.74%K -149.13%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV -11.37%E -1.23%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-22 10:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.74%EV -5.97%E -5.74%K -149.13%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 10.26%EV -12.81%E -1.41%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-22 10:00
Betway🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -6.87%E -6.67%K -228.97%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -13.76%E -1.53%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-22 10:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -5.97%E -5.74%K -149.13%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -18.55%E -2.18%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-22 09:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 89.19%EV -6.87%E -6.67%K -228.97%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -18.55%E -2.18%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-22 10:00
NordicBet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 88.90%EV -6.87%E -6.67%K -228.97%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.10%EV -20.95%E -2.54%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-22 10:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.07I 93.46%NM 92.40%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60%1.2%2026-06-22 10:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.07I 93.46%NM 92.40%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60%1.2%2026-06-22 10:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.07I 93.46%NM 92.40%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60%1.2%2026-06-22 10:10
Smarkets1.05I 95.24%NM 92.25%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.75%3.2%2026-06-22 10:10