Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Borna Gojo v Colton Smith

Kickoff: 2026-06-24 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Borna Gojo (Local)

Prediction 53.85%1.86fair odd
EV -1.98%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.85%53.85%53.85%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.751.741.8257.80%57.03%57.47%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Colton Smith (Visit)

Prediction 46.15%2.17fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%46.15%46.15%47.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.042.042.1050.25%49.13%49.02%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Borna Gojo (Local): 53.85%; Colton Smith (Visit): 46.15%. For Borna Gojo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.82, with an expected value of -1.98%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -1.98%E -1.09%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -5.86%E -2.87%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-24 11:10
ReBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.14%E -2.33%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-24 10:39
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.68%E -2.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-24 11:10
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.29%E -3.62%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-23 17:29
NordicBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.97%EV -6.29%E -3.62%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.03%EV -5.86%E -2.87%K -5.64%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-24 04:09
MyBookie.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.35%EV -6.29%E -3.62%K -8.50%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.65%EV -8.17%E -4.11%K -8.25%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-24 04:10
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.83%E -3.95%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.09%E -1.47%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-24 09:29
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.83%E -3.95%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.71%E -3.85%K -7.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-23 15:59
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.83%E -3.95%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.71%E -3.85%K -7.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-23 12:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%1.1%2026-06-24 11:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%1.1%2026-06-24 11:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%1.1%2026-06-24 11:40
Smarkets1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%2.4%2026-06-24 11:50