Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alejandro Moro Canas v Harold Mayot

Kickoff: 2026-06-24 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

35%

65%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alejandro Moro Canas (Local)

Prediction 34.54%2.90fair odd

EV +0.165%

Edge +0.057%

Kelly +0.087%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.24%34.13%34.59%34.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.622.782.782.9038.17%35.91%35.97%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Harold Mayot (Visit)

Prediction 65.46%1.53fair odd

EV -3.77%

Edge -2.57%

Kelly -8.03%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

65.22%65.87%65.41%67.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.381.411.401.4772.46%70.69%71.43%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alejandro Moro Canas (Local): 34.54%; Harold Mayot (Visit): 65.46%. For Alejandro Moro Canas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.895. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.900, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.165%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +0.165%E +0.057%K +0.087%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -8.36%E -5.97%K -20.89%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-06-24 16:09
theScore Bet🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV +0.165%E +0.057%K +0.087%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -9.66%E -7.00%K -25.43%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-06-24 16:10
NordicBet🎯	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -0.526%E -0.183%K -0.280%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -8.36%E -5.97%K -20.89%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-06-24 16:09
ReBet🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.29%E -1.17%K -1.83%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.74%E -3.98%K -13.04%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-06-24 15:59
PlayUp🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.29%E -1.17%K -1.83%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.05%E -4.96%K -16.78%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-06-24 16:00
Pinnacle🎯	2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%EV -3.98%E -1.43%K -2.24%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%EV -3.77%E -2.57%K -8.03%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-06-24 16:00
Betway🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.02%E -1.82%K -2.87%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.74%E -3.98%K -13.04%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-24 16:00
Paddy Power🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.02%E -1.82%K -2.87%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.36%E -5.97%K -20.89%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-06-24 16:00
Fliff🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -5.02%E -1.82%K -2.87%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -9.66%E -7.00%K -25.43%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-06-24 16:09
BoyleSports🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.74%E -2.50%K -3.97%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.74%E -3.98%K -13.04%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-06-24 16:09
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 34.66%EV -9.51%E -3.63%K -5.87%G +0.000%	1.39I 71.94%NM 65.34%EV -9.01%E -6.48%K -23.10%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-06-24 15:46

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%	0.8%	2026-06-24 16:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%	0.8%	2026-06-24 16:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.84I 35.21%NM 34.86%	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.14%	1.0%	2026-06-24 16:10
Smarkets◎	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88%	1.50I 66.67%NM 65.12%	2.4%	2026-06-24 16:10