Language:English
Alex de Minaur v Brandon Nakashima
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex de Minaur (Local)
Prediction 60.60%1.65fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -2.94%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%60.59%60.59%62.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.551.561.6267.11%64.54%64.10%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Brandon Nakashima (Visit)
Prediction 39.40%2.54fair odd
EV +0.464%
Edge +0.182%
Kelly +0.299%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.04%39.41%39.41%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.432.402.5544.44%41.13%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex de Minaur (Local): 60.60%; Brandon Nakashima (Visit): 39.40%. For Brandon Nakashima (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.464%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.10%E -6.06%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.464%E +0.182%K +0.299%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.10%E -6.06%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.464%E +0.182%K +0.299%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.10%E -6.06%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.464%E +0.182%K +0.299%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.10%E -6.06%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.464%E +0.182%K +0.299%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.10%E -6.06%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.464%E +0.182%K +0.299%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.10%E -6.06%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.464%E +0.182%K +0.299%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.10%E -6.06%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.464%E +0.182%K +0.299%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.10%E -6.06%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.464%E +0.182%K +0.299%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.10%E -6.06%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.464%E +0.182%K +0.299%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.10%E -6.06%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.464%E +0.182%K +0.299%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.10%E -6.06%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.464%E +0.182%K +0.299%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.10%E -6.06%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.464%E +0.182%K +0.299%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.10%E -6.06%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.464%E +0.182%K +0.299%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.10%E -6.06%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.464%E +0.182%K +0.299%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.10%E -6.06%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.464%E +0.182%K +0.299%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.65%EV -4.25%E -2.69%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.35%EV +0.070%E +0.028%K +0.045%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-07-31 17:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.46%E -3.50%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -1.51%E -0.602%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-31 17:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.28%E -4.76%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -1.51%E -0.602%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-31 04:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.47%EV -9.70%E -6.51%K -19.80%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.53%EV -2.29%E -0.925%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-31 17:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -5.46%E -3.50%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -3.08%E -1.25%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-31 17:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -4.25%E -2.69%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -3.48%E -1.42%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-31 17:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.85%E -3.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.48%E -1.42%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-31 17:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.31%EV -6.67%E -4.33%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.69%EV -3.87%E -1.59%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -1.82%E -1.13%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -4.66%E -1.92%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-31 17:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -1.82%E -1.13%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -4.66%E -1.92%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-31 17:44 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -4.85%E -3.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -4.66%E -1.92%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-31 17:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -5.46%E -3.50%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -4.66%E -1.92%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-31 17:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.27%EV -7.28%E -4.76%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.73%EV -4.66%E -1.92%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-31 17:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -1.82%E -1.13%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -5.45%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-31 14:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -2.43%E -1.51%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -5.45%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-31 17:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.64%E -2.29%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.45%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-31 17:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.85%E -3.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.45%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-31 17:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.46%E -3.50%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.45%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-31 17:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.07%E -3.91%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.45%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-31 17:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.67%E -4.33%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.45%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-31 17:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.28%E -4.76%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.45%E -2.27%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-31 17:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -5.46%E -3.50%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -5.84%E -2.44%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -5.46%E -3.50%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -5.84%E -2.44%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 17:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.85%E -3.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-31 14:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.85%E -3.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-31 15:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.85%E -3.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-31 15:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.85%E -3.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-31 15:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.85%E -3.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-31 15:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.85%E -3.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-31 14:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.28%E -4.76%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-31 17:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.28%E -4.76%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-31 17:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.28%E -4.76%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-31 14:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.28%E -4.76%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.23%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-31 14:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -7.28%E -4.76%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -6.63%E -2.80%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-31 17:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -7.28%E -4.76%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -6.63%E -2.80%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-31 17:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -3.04%E -1.90%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -7.02%E -2.98%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-31 13:59 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.04%E -1.90%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.42%E -3.16%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-31 17:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.25%E -2.69%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -7.42%E -3.16%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-31 14:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.85%E -3.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.42%E -3.16%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-31 17:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.85%E -3.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.42%E -3.16%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-31 17:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.85%E -3.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.42%E -3.16%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-31 17:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.28%E -4.76%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -7.42%E -3.16%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-31 17:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.04%E -1.90%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -9.39%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-31 17:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -3.64%E -2.29%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -9.39%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-31 14:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -4.25%E -2.69%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -9.39%E -4.08%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-31 17:33 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -1.82%E -1.13%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -11.36%E -5.05%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-31 17:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.61% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.39% | 0.2% | 2026-07-31 17:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.61% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.39% | 0.2% | 2026-07-31 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 0.5% | 2026-07-31 17:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 0.5% | 2026-07-31 17:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42% | 0.9% | 2026-07-31 17:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.82% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 39.18% | 0.9% | 2026-07-31 17:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.65% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.35% | 2.7% | 2026-07-31 17:55 |
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