Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Juan Manuel Cerundolo v Arthur Gea

Início: 2026-09-01 20:16 UTC

Final: Juan Manuel Cerundolo 2–3 Arthur Gea

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

63 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Juan Manuel Cerundolo (Local)

Previsão 45.16%2.21odd justa
EV -2.46%
Vantagem -1.14%
Kelly -2.12%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.16

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
44.01%45.30%45.16%48.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.952.092.092.1651.28%47.94%47.85%46.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Arthur Gea (Visitante)

Previsão 54.84%1.82odd justa
EV -0.189%
Vantagem -0.104%
Kelly -0.230%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.82

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
52.00%54.70%54.84%55.99%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.691.741.741.8259.17%57.60%57.47%54.95%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Juan Manuel Cerundolo (Local): 45.16%; Arthur Gea (Visitante): 54.84%. Para Arthur Gea (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 1.823. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 1.820, com valor esperado de -0.189%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (63 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 45.04%EV -2.46%E -1.14%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.96%EV -2.93%E -1.66%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-01 19:50
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -2.91%E -1.35%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -2.93%E -1.66%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-01 20:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.01%EV -2.91%E -1.35%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.99%EV -3.48%E -1.98%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-01 20:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.91%E -1.35%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-01 16:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.91%E -1.35%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-01 16:45
Caesars🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -2.91%E -1.35%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -7.32%E -4.33%K -10.61%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-01 13:38
FanDuel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -3.36%E -1.57%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -5.12%E -2.96%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-01 20:05
SportsBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -3.81%E -1.79%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -5.67%E -3.30%K -7.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 20:05
ReBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -4.26%E -2.01%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.48%E -1.98%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-01 20:03
Betclic (FR)🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.76%EV -4.72%E -2.23%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -6.22%E -3.64%K -8.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 19:55
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.93%E -1.66%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-01 19:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.48%E -1.98%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-01 13:29
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-01 16:49
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-01 19:25
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 13:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 13:00
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.12%E -2.96%K -7.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-01 15:25
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.12%E -2.96%K -7.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-01 19:50
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.12%E -2.96%K -7.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-01 20:05
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.12%E -2.96%K -7.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-01 20:05
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.12%E -2.96%K -7.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-01 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.12%E -2.96%K -7.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-01 18:05
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.67%E -3.30%K -7.88%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 13:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.67%E -3.30%K -7.88%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 13:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.67%E -3.30%K -7.88%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 19:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.22%E -3.64%K -8.76%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 17:35
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.77%E -3.98%K -9.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 13:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.77%E -3.98%K -9.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 13:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.77%E -3.98%K -9.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 20:10
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -7.32%E -4.33%K -10.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-01 13:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -5.62%E -2.69%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-01 13:30
MyBookie.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -5.62%E -2.69%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-01 13:29
DraftKings🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.14%EV -5.62%E -2.69%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.86%EV -5.67%E -3.30%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-01 13:19
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 13:00
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 13:00
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 13:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 13:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 13:00
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 13:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 13:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 13:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 13:00
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 13:00
Bally Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 13:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 13:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 13:00
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -6.07%E -2.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 13:00
BetUS🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.53%EV -6.52%E -3.15%K -6.10%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.47%EV -5.12%E -2.96%K -7.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 20:10
Betsson🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -6.97%E -3.39%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -5.12%E -2.96%K -7.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 13:30
NordicBet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -6.97%E -3.39%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -5.12%E -2.96%K -7.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 13:30
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.93%E -1.66%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 19:45
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.03%E -2.30%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 20:10
BetAnything🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.58%E -2.63%K -6.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 19:05
Fliff🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.22%E -3.64%K -8.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-01 19:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.77%E -3.98%K -9.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 20:05
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.77%E -3.98%K -9.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 20:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.77%E -3.98%K -9.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 20:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.77%E -3.98%K -9.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 20:09
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%EV -7.88%E -3.86%K -7.57%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%EV -6.77%E -3.98%K -9.67%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-01 13:00
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -8.78%E -4.35%K -8.61%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -0.189%E -0.104%K -0.230%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-01 20:10
GTbets🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -9.23%E -4.59%K -9.14%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -0.737%E -0.407%K -0.910%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-31 21:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -9.68%E -4.84%K -9.68%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -2.93%E -1.66%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-01 19:40
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -11.94%E -6.12%K -12.57%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -1.29%E -0.714%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-01 20:10
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73%0.4%2026-09-01 20:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73%0.4%2026-09-01 20:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73%0.4%2026-09-01 20:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73%0.4%2026-09-01 20:05
ProphetX◎2.21I 45.25%NM 44.75%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.25%1.1%2026-09-01 20:10
Novig◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.34%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.66%1.6%2026-09-01 20:05
Smarkets◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%2.5%2026-09-01 20:05