Language:English
Dane Sweeny v Corentin Moutet
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Dane Sweeny (Local)
Prediction 32.49%3.08fair odd
EV +13.06%
Edge +3.75%
Kelly +5.27%
Growth +0.688%
assuming max odds 3.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.20%32.10%32.56%34.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.963.003.4836.36%33.80%33.33%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Corentin Moutet (Visit)
Prediction 67.51%1.48fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -4.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.63%67.90%67.44%72.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.391.401.4576.92%71.76%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dane Sweeny (Local): 32.49%; Corentin Moutet (Visit): 67.51%. For Dane Sweeny (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.08. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.06%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.20%EV +13.06%E +3.75%K +5.27%G +0.688% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.80%EV -12.24%E -9.41%K -40.78%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-01 15:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV +5.59%E +1.72%K +2.48%G +0.139% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -8.86%E -6.56%K -25.31%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV +3.96%E +1.24%K +1.80%G +0.071% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -8.18%E -6.02%K -22.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-01 18:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV +0.715%E +0.231%K +0.341%G +0.002% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV +0.715%E +0.231%K +0.341%G +0.002% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -8.86%E -6.56%K -25.31%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 15:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV +0.715%E +0.231%K +0.341%G +0.002% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -8.86%E -6.56%K -25.31%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 15:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV +0.715%E +0.231%K +0.341%G +0.002% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -8.86%E -6.56%K -25.31%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 15:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.79%EV +0.066%E +0.021%K +0.032%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.21%EV -7.51%E -5.48%K -20.30%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-01 18:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -0.909%E -0.298%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -4.13%E -2.91%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-01 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.909%E -0.298%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 15:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.909%E -0.298%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 15:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.38%EV -1.23%E -0.406%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.62%EV -6.16%E -4.43%K -15.79%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-01 16:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-01 18:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-01 15:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-01 17:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.53%E -0.845%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.18%E -6.02%K -22.74%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-01 17:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.95%EV -4.16%E -1.41%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.05%EV -2.11%E -1.45%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-01 17:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -4.16%E -1.41%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.20%EV -2.78%E -1.93%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-01 15:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -4.16%E -1.41%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.20%EV -2.78%E -1.93%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-01 15:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -4.16%E -1.41%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -8.18%E -6.02%K -22.74%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-01 15:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:50 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 15:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 15:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 15:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 17:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-01 15:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -6.43%E -2.23%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.13%E -2.91%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 15:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.43%E -2.23%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-01 17:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.41%E -2.60%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.13%E -2.91%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-01 17:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -7.41%E -2.60%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-01 17:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -7.73%E -2.72%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -2.78%E -1.93%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-01 16:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.33%EV -8.38%E -2.97%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.67%EV -4.81%E -3.41%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 15:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.33%EV -8.38%E -2.97%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.67%EV -4.81%E -3.41%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 15:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -9.03%E -3.23%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -2.78%E -1.93%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 16:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -9.03%E -3.23%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -3.46%E -2.42%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 15:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.03%E -3.23%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.13%E -2.91%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-01 17:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.03%E -3.23%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.13%E -2.91%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-01 15:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 32.69%EV -9.68%E -3.48%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.31%EV -8.86%E -6.56%K -25.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-01 15:28 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.66%E -3.87%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.78%E -1.93%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 16:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.66%E -3.87%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.78%E -1.93%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 16:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.66%E -3.87%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.78%E -1.93%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 16:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.84% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.16% | 0.4% | 2026-09-01 18:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 0.7% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 0.7% | 2026-09-01 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 0.7% | 2026-09-01 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 0.7% | 2026-09-01 18:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 0.9% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63% | 1.2% | 2026-09-01 18:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.42% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.58% | 2.7% | 2026-09-01 18:35 |