Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Holger Rune v Valentin Vacherot

2026-10-30 13:00 UTC — ATP Swiss Indoors Basel

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Holger Rune (Local)

Predicción 54.71%1.83momio equitativo
EV -3.17%
Ventaja -1.79%
Kelly -4.12%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.95%54.96%54.68%56.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.651.711.711.7760.61%58.42%58.31%56.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Valentin Vacherot (Visitante)

Predicción 45.29%2.21momio equitativo
EV +1.91%
Ventaja +0.849%
Kelly +1.53%
Crecimiento +0.029%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.15%45.04%45.32%46.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.962.092.072.2551.02%47.91%48.31%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Holger Rune (Local): 54.71%; Valentin Vacherot (Visitante): 45.29%. Para Valentin Vacherot (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.21. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.25, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.91%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -6.45%E -3.77%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV +1.91%E +0.849%K +1.53%G +0.029%2.9%2026-10-29 20:00
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.355%E -0.161%K -0.296%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-29 19:45
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.355%E -0.161%K -0.296%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-29 19:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.355%E -0.161%K -0.296%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-29 19:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.355%E -0.161%K -0.296%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-29 19:45
Bovada🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.45%E -3.77%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.62%E -1.22%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-29 19:50
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -2.62%E -1.22%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-29 19:45
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -2.62%E -1.22%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-29 20:00
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -9.73%E -5.90%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -2.62%E -1.22%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-29 20:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -9.73%E -5.90%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -2.62%E -1.22%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-29 20:00
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -6.45%E -3.77%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -3.07%E -1.44%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-29 20:00
FanDuel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.90%E -3.43%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.98%E -1.88%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-29 19:59
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -4.43%E -2.10%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-29 19:44
Fanatics🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-29 20:00
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-29 19:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-29 20:00
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.90%E -3.43%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-29 20:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-29 19:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-29 20:00
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-29 20:00
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-29 20:00
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-29 20:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -9.73%E -5.90%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-29 20:00
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.15%EV -3.17%E -1.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.85%EV -5.34%E -2.55%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-29 20:05
NordicBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -5.79%E -2.78%K -5.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-29 20:00
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:40
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
TABtouch🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
Bally Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.47%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.53%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-29 20:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%EV -6.70%E -3.25%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-29 20:05
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-29 19:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-29 19:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-29 20:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-29 19:35
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.45%E -3.77%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-29 20:00
picklebet_au🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-29 20:00
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-29 19:43
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-29 20:00
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-29 20:00
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-29 19:50
ReBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.42%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 45.58%EV -8.05%E -3.97%K -7.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-29 20:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.37%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 45.63%EV -9.87%E -4.96%K -9.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-29 20:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.40%EV -9.19%E -5.53%K -13.92%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.60%EV -10.32%E -5.21%K -10.53%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-29 20:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.27%EV -9.19%E -5.53%K -13.92%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.73%EV -10.77%E -5.47%K -11.11%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-29 20:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.99%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.01%EV -11.23%E -5.73%K -11.69%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-29 19:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36%0.9%2026-10-29 20:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%0.9%2026-10-29 20:00
Matchbook◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%0.9%2026-10-29 20:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%0.9%2026-10-29 20:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%0.9%2026-10-29 20:00
Novig◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79%1.6%2026-10-29 19:45
Smarkets◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%2.0%2026-10-29 20:05