StandardmodellInterquartilsmittel (Kuratierte Liste)

Holger Rune v Valentin Vacherot

2026-10-30 13:00 UTC — ATP Swiss Indoors Basel

Direkter Vergleich

56 Wettanbieter (18 in der Analyse )

Geschätzte Wahrscheinlichkeit jedes Ergebnisses nach dem Modell: Interquartilsmittel (Kuratierte Liste)

Holger Rune (Heim)

Prognose 54.71%1.83faire Quote
EV -3.17%
Vorteil -1.79%
Kelly -4.12%
Wachstum +0.000%

bei einer Höchstquote von 1.77

Verteilung der Wettanbieterprognosen
53.95%54.96%54.68%56.85%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.
Quotenverteilung
1.651.711.711.7760.61%58.42%58.31%56.50%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.

Valentin Vacherot (Auswärts)

Prognose 45.29%2.21faire Quote
EV +1.91%
Vorteil +0.849%
Kelly +1.53%
Wachstum +0.029%

bei einer Höchstquote von 2.25

Verteilung der Wettanbieterprognosen
43.15%45.04%45.32%46.05%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.
Quotenverteilung
1.962.092.072.2551.02%47.91%48.31%44.44%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.

Für Direkter Vergleich schätzt Interquartilsmittel (Kuratierte Liste) folgende Wahrscheinlichkeiten: Holger Rune (Heim): 54.71%; Valentin Vacherot (Auswärts): 45.29%. Für Valentin Vacherot (Auswärts) entspricht diese Schätzung einer fairen Dezimalquote von 2.21. 1 Wettanbieter bietet eine Quote über diesem Wert an; die beste verfügbare Quote beträgt 2.25 und ergibt einen positiven Erwartungswert von +1.91%.

Wettanbieterquoten (56 Wettanbieter)

Wir sind mit keinem Wettanbieter verbunden und erhalten keinerlei Ertrag aus Handlungen, die bei diesen Anbietern vorgenommen werden.

WettanbieterHeimAuswärts ▼MargeAktualisiert
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -6.45%E -3.77%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV +1.91%E +0.849%K +1.53%G +0.029%2.9%2026-10-29 20:00
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.355%E -0.161%K -0.296%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-29 19:45
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.355%E -0.161%K -0.296%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-29 19:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.355%E -0.161%K -0.296%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-29 19:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.355%E -0.161%K -0.296%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-29 19:45
Bovada🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.45%E -3.77%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.62%E -1.22%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-29 19:50
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -2.62%E -1.22%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-29 19:45
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -2.62%E -1.22%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-29 20:00
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -9.73%E -5.90%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -2.62%E -1.22%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-29 20:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -9.73%E -5.90%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -2.62%E -1.22%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-29 20:00
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -6.45%E -3.77%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -3.07%E -1.44%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-29 20:00
FanDuel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.90%E -3.43%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.98%E -1.88%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-29 19:59
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -4.43%E -2.10%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-29 19:44
Fanatics🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-29 20:00
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-29 19:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-29 20:00
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.90%E -3.43%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-29 20:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-29 19:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-29 20:00
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -8.09%E -4.82%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-29 20:00
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-29 20:00
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-29 20:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -9.73%E -5.90%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -4.88%E -2.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-29 20:00
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.15%EV -3.17%E -1.79%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.85%EV -5.34%E -2.55%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-29 20:05
NordicBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -5.79%E -2.78%K -5.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-29 20:00
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:40
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
TABtouch🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
Bally Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-29 19:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.47%EV -5.36%E -3.10%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.53%EV -6.24%E -3.02%K -5.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-29 20:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%EV -6.70%E -3.25%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-29 20:05
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.26%E -2.44%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-29 19:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-29 19:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-29 20:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.81%E -2.76%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-29 19:35
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.45%E -3.77%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-29 20:00
picklebet_au🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-29 20:00
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-29 19:43
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-29 20:00
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-29 20:00
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-29 19:50
ReBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.42%EV -7.00%E -4.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 45.58%EV -8.05%E -3.97%K -7.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-29 20:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.37%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 45.63%EV -9.87%E -4.96%K -9.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-29 20:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.40%EV -9.19%E -5.53%K -13.92%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.60%EV -10.32%E -5.21%K -10.53%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-29 20:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.27%EV -9.19%E -5.53%K -13.92%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.73%EV -10.77%E -5.47%K -11.11%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-29 20:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.99%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.90%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.01%EV -11.23%E -5.73%K -11.69%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-29 19:35
Marge = Marge (Wahrscheinlichkeitsüberschuss) · I = Implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit · NM = Margenbereinigte Wahrscheinlichkeit · EV = Erwartungswert · E = Vorteil · K = Kelly-Kriterium · G = Wachstum des Wettkapitals

Aktualisiert gibt an, wann der jeweilige Wettanbieter seinen Preis zuletzt geändert hat. Eine ältere Zeit bedeutet also, dass sich die Quote lediglich nicht bewegt hat, nicht dass sie veraltet ist. Anbieter, die seit etwa 15 Minuten nicht mehr erfasst wurden, werden normalerweise ausgeschlossen; nur wenn die Datenquelle eines ganzen Marktes verstummt, erscheinen stattdessen die zuletzt erfassten Preise.

Wettbörsen (7)

WettanbieterHeimAuswärtsMarge ▲Aktualisiert
ProphetX◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36%0.9%2026-10-29 20:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%0.9%2026-10-29 20:00
Matchbook◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%0.9%2026-10-29 20:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%0.9%2026-10-29 20:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%0.9%2026-10-29 20:00
Novig◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79%1.6%2026-10-29 19:45
Smarkets◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%2.0%2026-10-29 20:05