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Zizou Bergs v Carlos Alcaraz
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Zizou Bergs (Local)
Prediction 10.21%9.80fair odd
EV +12.29%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.23%
Growth +0.151%
assuming max odds 11.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.64%10.25%10.13%12.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.289.5011.0013.33%10.77%10.53%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Carlos Alcaraz (Visit)
Prediction 89.79%1.11fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -2.80%
Kelly -37.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.51%89.75%89.87%91.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.051.051.0899.01%94.79%95.24%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zizou Bergs (Local): 10.21%; Carlos Alcaraz (Visit): 89.79%. For Zizou Bergs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.80. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.29%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +12.29%E +1.12%K +1.23%G +0.151% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-12 08:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +12.29%E +1.12%K +1.23%G +0.151% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-12 08:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +12.29%E +1.12%K +1.23%G +0.151% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.62%E -6.36%K -165.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 08:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 10.80I 9.26%NM 8.86%EV +10.25%E +0.949%K +1.05%G +0.107% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.14%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-11 16:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 10.77I 9.29%NM 9.04%EV +9.94%E +0.923%K +1.02%G +0.101% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.96%EV -3.92%E -3.67%K -56.04%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-10-12 09:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV +7.18%E +0.684%K +0.756%G +0.054% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.83%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-12 08:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 10.20I 9.80%NM 9.33%EV +4.12%E +0.404%K +0.448%G +0.018% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.67%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 16:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +2.08%E +0.208%K +0.231%G +0.005% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-10 16:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +2.08%E +0.208%K +0.231%G +0.005% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-10 16:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +2.08%E +0.208%K +0.231%G +0.005% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-11 09:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +2.08%E +0.208%K +0.231%G +0.005% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -8.41%E -8.25%K -420.61%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-11 21:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 9.95I 10.05%NM 9.63%EV +1.57%E +0.158%K +0.175%G +0.003% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.37%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-12 09:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 9.65I 10.36%NM 9.73%EV -1.49%E -0.155%K -0.173%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.27%EV -6.62%E -6.36%K -165.41%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-12 09:54 |
| GTbets🎯 | 9.58I 10.44%NM 10.13%EV -2.21%E -0.230%K -0.257%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.87%EV -3.02%E -2.80%K -37.81%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-10 16:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-10 16:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 02:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-12 05:54 |
| ReBet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-12 09:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-10 17:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 08:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 08:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 08:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 08:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 08:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 08:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 08:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 08:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 08:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 08:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 08:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 08:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 08:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 08:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.02%E -0.318%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 08:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.13%EV -4.05%E -0.430%K -0.482%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.87%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-12 08:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.13%EV -4.05%E -0.430%K -0.482%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.87%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-12 08:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.13%EV -4.05%E -0.430%K -0.482%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.87%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 02:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.05%EV -4.05%E -0.430%K -0.482%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.95%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-12 09:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.19%EV -5.58%E -0.603%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.81%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-10 16:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -8.13%E -0.903%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-12 09:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -8.13%E -0.903%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-12 08:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -8.13%E -0.903%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-12 08:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.71%EV -10.68%E -1.22%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.29%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-10 16:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.71%EV -10.68%E -1.22%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.29%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-10 16:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.23%E -1.56%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.92%E -3.67%K -56.04%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 09:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -13.23%E -1.56%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-12 09:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -13.23%E -1.56%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-12 09:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -13.23%E -1.56%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.19%EV -7.51%E -7.30%K -250.47%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-12 07:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.62%EV -13.23%E -1.56%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 89.38%EV -9.31%E -9.22%K -931.00%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-12 08:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 8.49I 11.78%NM 11.29%EV -13.33%E -1.57%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.71%EV -3.02%E -2.80%K -37.81%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-12 09:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 8.49I 11.78%NM 11.29%EV -13.33%E -1.57%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.71%EV -3.02%E -2.80%K -37.81%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-12 09:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -15.78%E -1.91%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.52%EV -3.92%E -3.67%K -56.04%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 22:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -18.34%E -2.29%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -3.92%E -3.67%K -56.04%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-12 09:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -18.34%E -2.29%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -3.92%E -3.67%K -56.04%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-12 09:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -18.34%E -2.29%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-12 09:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -18.34%E -2.29%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-12 09:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -18.34%E -2.29%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.34%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-12 09:44 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -18.34%E -2.29%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-12 08:23 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -18.34%E -2.29%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.37%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-12 08:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -23.44%E -3.13%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -3.92%E -3.67%K -56.04%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-12 09:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.33% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 91.67% | 0.1% | 2026-10-12 09:45 |
| ProphetX◎ | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.66% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 91.34% | 0.4% | 2026-10-12 09:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 0.9% | 2026-10-12 06:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 0.9% | 2026-10-12 06:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 0.9% | 2026-10-12 09:45 |
| Novig◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.89% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.11% | 1.5% | 2026-10-12 09:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 11.49I 8.70%NM 8.45% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.55% | 3.0% | 2026-10-12 09:55 |