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Stefanos Tsitsipas v Taylor Fritz
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local)
Prediction 40.93%2.44fair odd
EV +2.32%
Edge +0.929%
Kelly +1.55%
Growth +0.036%
assuming max odds 2.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%40.80%40.94%42.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.362.322.5044.44%42.40%43.10%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Taylor Fritz (Visit)
Prediction 59.07%1.69fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.809%
Kelly -2.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.40%59.20%59.06%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.581.601.6768.03%63.12%62.50%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local): 40.93%; Taylor Fritz (Visit): 59.07%. For Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.44. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.32%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.32%E +0.929%K +1.55%G +0.036% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.62%E -6.29%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 17:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.32%E +0.929%K +1.55%G +0.036% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.62%E -6.29%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 17:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.32%E +0.929%K +1.55%G +0.036% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.62%E -6.29%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 17:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.32%E +0.929%K +1.55%G +0.036% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.62%E -6.29%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 17:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.32%E +0.929%K +1.55%G +0.036% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.62%E -6.29%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 17:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.32%E +0.929%K +1.55%G +0.036% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.62%E -6.29%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 17:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.32%E +0.929%K +1.55%G +0.036% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.62%E -6.29%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 17:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.32%E +0.929%K +1.55%G +0.036% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.62%E -6.29%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 17:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.32%E +0.929%K +1.55%G +0.036% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.62%E -6.29%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 17:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.32%E +0.929%K +1.55%G +0.036% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.62%E -6.29%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 17:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.32%E +0.929%K +1.55%G +0.036% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.62%E -6.29%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 17:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.32%E +0.929%K +1.55%G +0.036% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.62%E -6.29%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 17:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.32%E +0.929%K +1.55%G +0.036% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.62%E -6.29%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 17:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.32%E +0.929%K +1.55%G +0.036% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.62%E -6.29%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 17:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.32%E +0.929%K +1.55%G +0.036% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.62%E -6.29%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 17:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -1.77%E -0.738%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -2.53%E -1.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-10-12 00:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -2.59%E -1.09%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -4.30%E -2.66%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-12 00:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -2.59%E -1.09%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -6.67%E -4.22%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 17:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.18%EV -2.59%E -1.09%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.82%EV -13.16%E -8.96%K -28.01%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-11 17:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.82%E -1.62%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.30%E -2.66%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-12 00:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.82%E -1.62%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.30%E -2.66%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-12 00:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.82%E -1.62%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.89%E -3.04%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-11 17:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.82%E -1.62%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.89%E -3.04%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-12 00:11 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -4.23%E -1.81%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -4.30%E -2.66%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-12 02:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.23%E -1.81%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.89%E -3.04%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-12 02:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.23%E -1.81%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.89%E -3.04%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-12 06:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.64%E -1.99%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.30%E -2.66%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-12 00:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.64%E -1.99%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.89%E -3.04%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-12 05:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.56%EV -5.05%E -2.17%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.44%EV -2.53%E -1.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-12 06:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.56%EV -5.05%E -2.17%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.44%EV -2.53%E -1.53%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-12 06:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -5.05%E -2.17%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -3.12%E -1.90%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-12 05:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.05%E -2.17%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.89%E -3.04%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 00:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.05%E -2.17%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.89%E -3.04%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 06:04 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.05%E -2.17%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.89%E -3.04%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 04:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.05%E -2.17%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.89%E -3.04%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 00:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.86%E -2.55%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.30%E -2.66%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 00:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.86%E -2.55%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.30%E -2.66%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 05:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.86%E -2.55%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.89%E -3.04%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-12 00:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.86%E -2.55%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.89%E -3.04%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-12 00:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.86%E -2.55%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.89%E -3.04%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-12 00:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.86%E -2.55%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.89%E -3.04%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-12 05:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.86%E -2.55%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.49%E -3.43%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-12 00:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.86%E -2.55%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.49%E -3.43%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-12 00:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.86%E -2.55%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.49%E -3.43%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-12 00:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.86%E -2.55%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.49%E -3.43%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-12 00:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.86%E -2.55%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.08%E -3.82%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-12 00:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.86%E -2.55%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.26%E -4.62%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-12 00:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.86%E -2.55%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.26%E -4.62%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-12 00:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -5.86%E -2.55%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.44%E -5.44%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-12 05:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -5.86%E -2.55%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.53%EV -11.39%E -7.60%K -22.79%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-12 06:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -6.27%E -2.74%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -4.30%E -2.66%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-12 05:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -7.91%E -3.52%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -1.35%E -0.809%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-11 12:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.91%E -3.52%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.30%E -2.66%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-12 05:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.91%E -3.52%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.30%E -2.66%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-12 05:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.91%E -3.52%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.30%E -2.66%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-11 10:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.91%E -3.52%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.49%E -3.43%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-12 00:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.91%E -3.52%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.26%E -4.62%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-12 05:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.91%E -3.52%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.26%E -4.62%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-12 05:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.91%E -3.52%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -8.44%E -5.44%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-12 05:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 0.5% | 2026-10-12 06:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 0.5% | 2026-10-12 06:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 0.5% | 2026-10-12 06:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90% | 0.6% | 2026-10-12 06:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24% | 0.6% | 2026-10-12 06:05 |
| Novig◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.66% | 1.6% | 2026-10-12 06:14 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.39% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.61% | 2.3% | 2026-10-12 06:05 |